Bilateral frictions to overshadow Rubio meeting with Indo-Pacific partners

WASHINGTON – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts his Australian, Indian and Japanese counterparts on July 1, seeking to boost efforts to counter China even as trade and other bilateral disagreements introduce friction into the relationships.

The four countries, known as the Quad, share concerns about China’s growing power, but their ties have been strained by President Donald Trump’s global tariff offensive from which none of the Quad members have been spared.

Other issues are also putting pressure on relations.

Japan, the key US ally in the Indo-Pacific, postponed an annual ministerial meeting with the US State and Defence Departments that was supposed to be held on July 1. Press reports said this followed US pressure for it to boost defence spending further than previously requested.

The Financial Times said last week the demands came from Mr Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, whom analysts say has also recently created anxiety in Australia by launching a review of the massive Aukus project to provide that country with nuclear-powered submarines.

India, meanwhile, has differed with Mr Trump’s claims that his intervention and threats to cut off trade talks averted a major conflict between India and Pakistan after militants killed Indian tourists in the disputed Kashmir region in April.

Mr Rubio hosted a meeting of Quad ministers in his first diplomatic engagement as secretary of state on Jan 21, the day after Mr Trump began his second term, a move meant to underscore the importance of the Indo-Pacific region.

Mr Trump has since been distracted by issues elsewhere, including

most recently the Israel-Iran conflict

. The meeting on July 1 will be a chance to refocus attention on the region, seen as the primary challenge for the US in the future.

After a joint session with Quad foreign ministers, Mr Rubio is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Japan’s Takeshi Iwaya, India’s S. Jaishankar and Australia’s Penny Wong.

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told reporters on June 30 the Quad partners would “reaffirm our shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific”.

Speaking at an event in New York on June 30, Mr Jaishankar addressed US ties by saying “relationships will never be free of issues”, and adding: “What matters is the ability to deal with it and to keep that trend going in the positive direction.”

Referring to the Quad, he said there were a lot of issues that needed to be discussed in the Indo-Pacific, including maritime security, technology, pandemic preparedness and education. “I think we’ll get good results,” he said.

No trophies

In January, the Quad said officials would meet regularly to prepare for the leaders’ summit in India expected later in 2025.

Mr Arthur Sinodinos, Australia’s former ambassador to Washington now with the Asia Group consultancy, said bilateral issues could overshadow the meeting, from which Washington is keen to see a greater Quad focus on security.

“Australian audiences will be looking for clues on the US stance on Aukus as well as on trade,” he said, adding that there also was interest in when Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would secure a first meeting with Mr Trump.

Mr Nicholas Szechenyi, a Japan expert at Washington’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said

US-Japan ties appeared to have lost momentum

since a February summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Mr Trump.

“The two leaders heralded a golden age in US-Japan relations, but there are no trophies to put on the mantle at this stage,” he said. “The tariff negotiations are all-consuming, and the Japanese appear exasperated by the administration’s public lectures on defence spending.”

Mr Richard Rossow, an India expert, also at CSIS, said Mr Trump’s approach to India on trade and security interests had been “clumsy”, but the long-term strategic and commercial reasons for deeper cooperation remained largely unchanged.

“So, the chances of further cooperation remain viable, even if the mood is less conducive,” Mr Rossow said while noting the slow pace of staffing senior roles critical to managing day-to-day US dealings with India, with no ambassador nominated and State and Defence department positions also unfilled. REUTERS