Arizona independents in play as Biden pushes big Intel investments

WASHINGTON - US President Joe Biden’s move on March 20 to pump US$19.5 billion (S$26 billion) into Intel’s expanding chip-making business could pay dividends with a critical part of the American electorate his Democrats need to win over: Independents in the swing state of Arizona.

The move will create thousands of jobs in the South-western border state that is expected to play a critical role in determining the Nov 5 elections for president and Congress. Recent polling shows the economy as Arizona voters’ No. 2 concern after immigration.

In addition to the close-fought contest between Mr Biden and Republican challenger Donald Trump, Arizona voters will be choosing a successor to retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat-turned-independent, and deciding two highly competitive races for House of Representatives seats now held by Republicans.

“The potential could be independent voters,” said Dr Thom Reilly, a professor at Arizona State University’s School of Public Affairs, who noted that independents are the state’s largest voting bloc and represented about 40 per cent of voters in the 2022 mid-term elections.

“Independents came out in significant numbers for Democrats in 2022,” said Prof Reilly, who added that news of the Intel investment could carry weight with the state’s large and growing numbers of youth and Hispanic voters, as well as California transplants.

The funds come from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, which set aside around US$52 billion in federal government subsidies to support the domestic production of semiconductors, coupled with about US$24 billion worth of investment tax credits.

In addition to Arizona, funds will go to Ohio, home to another key Senate race, New Mexico and Oregon. Intel estimated the new plants will create 3,000 new jobs in the company and another 6,000 spots for the construction workers who build them.

Arizona will play a critical role in determining whether Democrats can protect their slim 51-49 majority in the Senate. The race will pit Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego against Republican former television broadcaster Kari Lake, a vocal Trump supporter.

Tight contest

Mr Biden won Arizona in a tight 2020 race against Trump. A Feb 22 Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters in the state had Trump leading Mr Biden 46 per cent to 43 per cent, which is within the margin of error of 3 percentage points. In that same poll, Mr Gallego led Ms Lake at 46 per cent to 39 per cent, with 15 per cent undecided.

Intel said the new, expanded facilities will be in the city of Chandler, about 32km south-east of Phoenix. That puts it within driving distance of the state’s two most competitive House districts. With Republicans holding a narrow 219-213 majority, a few changes could flip control of the Chamber.

Both those seats are held by Republicans, representatives David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani, who are expected to face tough races against Democrats. Republicans and Democrats hold their primary elections on July 30.

Officials with the two campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Mr Schweikert, who won re-election in 2022 by 3,200 votes, voted against the massive semiconductor investment Bill, as did most of his House Republican colleagues.

Mr Ciscomani is a first-term Republican who was not in Congress in 2022. Mr Gallego voted in favour of the Bill.

“Any time you can deliver actual results to a company and a state... it’s a net positive,” said Ms Jessica Taylor, an editor at the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

She added that whether Democrats actually gain votes depends in part on how effective the White House is in communicating going forward. That is an area that the Biden administration has come under criticism for and the president himself has expressed frustrations over.

“What kind of economics are people concerned about? Things like this or more like kitchen-table issues,” Ms Taylor said, referring to consumer prices and inflation. “That’s the biggest hurdle that they have with undecided voters.” REUTERS