Anxiety grows over what COP27 can deliver

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt - At the COP27 climate talks in Egypt, there’s a growing sense of worry that two weeks of negotiations will not be enough time and result in a weak outcome. With a Friday deadline looming, and many issues unresolved, the talks are set to drag on into the weekend – reaching consensus among 200 nations is never an easy task.

Anxiety is growing in the halls and negotiating rooms that nations remain far apart on key issues. These include

discussions on a possible loss and damage financing mechanism

for poorer nations, boosting climate finance and ironing out how carbon offset trading will function under the Paris Agreement, the world’s main climate pact.

The talks were always going to struggle for world attention, overshadowed as they were by the global energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and competing news events, from the US midterm elections to the Group of 20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali. Yet, COP27 has to be the most important global gathering of the year.

No other crisis has affected the globe as much as climate change this year, with the

millions displaced by floods in Pakistan

, China and Australia, and crippling heatwaves across Europe and South Asia. Man-made climate change

has had a direct hand in most,

if not all, of these events by fuelling their ferocity and scale.

All this makes annual UN climate conferences like COP27 so vital. Decisions taken here drive actions for governments and businesses – even if the negotiation process is hard to fathom for the vast majority of people.

“Being a process of consensus, all too often the decisions reflect the lowest common denominator and can fall perilously short of the urgency required,” said Dr Simon Bradshaw, research director of projects at the Climate Council, a leading Australian climate science communication non-profit.

COP27 faces strong pressure to deliver much greater global ambition to tackle climate change, especially after this year’s weather-related extremes and predictions from the United Nations

that worse is to come

as the planet heats up

.

That puts billions of people at the mercy of more destructive weather, in rich and poor nations.

Developing nations are insisting COP27 finally

deliver a decision to back a funding mechanism

for irreparable loss and damage caused by stronger storms, floods, droughts and sea level rise. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, and also small island states, say COP27 must agree on the creation of a financing mechanism even if its exact nature is still unclear.

“That’s the big question. It’s not just what the fund is going to be or the facility, but where are the funds going to come from for any of them – existing or new?” said Mr Alden Meyer, senior associate at think-tank E3G and a veteran observer of UN climate talks.

Scores of poorer, vulnerable nations say climate change impacts are draining their economies and forcing more people into poverty. They say wealthier nations, whose emissions are driving the climate crisis, should help them cope.

The funds are also to help nations adapt and become more resilient to climate impacts. Far stronger action to phase out fossil fuels is also being demanded, with India wanting any agreement to include this.

“The world’s most climate-vulnerable countries are not about to concede any of these big fights, so we can expect a few more days of fierce negotiations yet,” said Dr Bradshaw.

The 39-member Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis), which includes Singapore, said on Wednesday that the grouping and other developing countries “were gravely concerned” over the lack of progress made on funding arrangements for loss and damage.

“We have come too far to fail on loss and damage finance,” said Aosis chair Molwyn Joseph, Antigua and Barbuda’s Minister of Health, Wellness and the Environment.

There is concern the final decision will be to continue discussions next year. The European Union and United States remain wary of anything that could be labelled climate reparations or compensation, preferring more negotiations that would refine the outlines of a possible funding arrangement.

But any delay could sow further mistrust between rich and poor nations, already soured by wealthy nations not meeting past climate finance pledges.

Loss and damage funding was first proposed 30 years ago and should have been a focus since the start of climate negotiations in the 1990s, said Mr Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy for Climate Action Network, a global alliance of non-governmental organisations. “It’s a real issue. It’s not a bargaining chip any more. The game has changed.”

To try to speed things along, the Egyptian COP27 presidency late on Tuesday announced co-facilitators for the key issues that need to be resolved, including a work programme to boost efforts to cut emissions, climate finance, loss and damage, carbon markets, and defining a global goal on adaptation.

Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu and Mr Espen Barth Eide, Norway’s Minister of Climate and the Environment, will

co-chair the carbon markets discussions.

Mr Meyer of E3G said the talks were well behind where they should be, but the co-facilitators and ongoing discussions by the COP27 presidency will hopefully lead to the outlines of a clearer draft agreement for nations to adopt in the coming few days.

For many, a weak outcome that punts the thorniest issues into next year for further discussions would be a wasted opportunity. With 35,000 people turning up at COP27, many are hoping it will lead to a better future.

Business groups are certainly happy, though. COP27 has been a boon for the business sector and governments looking to collaborate and make deals, while climate negotiators struggle to make headway.