Potential deadlock in US election raises fears of instability

The Democrat Party is nervous, with the euphoria of Ms Kamala Harris’ nomination having evaporated and polls showing her in a statistical deadlock with Republican candidate Donald Trump across a handful of critical swing states, said Mr Steven Herman, Chief National Correspondent of the Voice of America (VOA).

Meanwhile, there is concern about post-election instability.

Unless either candidate scores a decisive win in the swing states – which remains a possibility – the outcome of the election will likely be contested. Both parties have armies of lawyers standing by, said the veteran journalist, who spoke to Asian Insider this week.

Under the United States’ Electoral College system there is a series of critical steps after polling day on Nov 5. Electors in each state will meet to cast their votes on Dec 17 for the President and Vice-President, a practice that is governed by state law. The electors will sign, seal, and certify the electoral votes.

After that, on Jan 3 in Washington DC, Congress will convene, and on Jan 6 it will certify the results of the election in a joint session where the electoral certificates for each state will be counted and tallied.

That step – ratification by Congress – is supposed to be largely ceremonial, but on the day of the certification of President-elect Joe Biden on Jan 6, 2021, Trump supporters, believing he had won, stormed the Capitol in one of the most significant episodes of political violence in the US’ recent history.

“Each state gets a designated number of electors, which is based on the vote results in that state,” noted Mr Herman, who was VOA’s White House Bureau Chief during the Donald Trump presidency from 2017 through 2020.

“This is supposed to be very straightforward and symbolic and without controversy, but as we saw four years ago there were attempts to subvert that process by (some) Republicans acting on behalf of Donald Trump to try to challenge it in courts and get alternate elector lists sent in,” Mr Herman said.

“It’s very plausible that there could be that challenge again. And in fact, we know that the Trump campaign and the Republican party have lawyers standing by to file all sorts of legal actions. But the Democrats say they’re prepared for this eventuality and that they also have lawyers standing by.”

If Donald Trump is the outright winner of the electoral vote count, then presumably the Democrats would not challenge that, he said. “But if Kamala Harris is ahead or deemed to be the winner then it does appear that it could be quite problematic,” he said.

This comes as America’s political and ideological polarisation is worsening.

When Mr Herman returned to the US in 2016 after a quarter of a century in Asia stationed in Tokyo, Seoul, New Delhi and Bangkok, he was “stunned” to find that the political “middle had fallen out”, he said.

“It does not seem like the outcome of this election is going to lead to a quick reconciliation process,” he added.

“I have heard Democrats and some Republicans muse that if Kamala Harris is able to decisively defeat Donald Trump, this would deflate Trumpism because presumably Trump would not run again in four years and the wind would sort of go out of the sails of this movement,” he said.

“But most people I talk to who are pragmatic in politics... do not expect we’re ever going to see a return of that traditional Republican party. There will be other candidates who have watched Donald Trump and learnt from his mistakes and perhaps even launch a more forceful and autocratic-leaning campaign four years from now.”

Separately this week, the US-based Soufan Centre, which monitors conflict and risk, in a bulletin warned that “the risk of political violence remains high, the environment in the United States is extremely volatile”.

There have been at least 51 incidents of political violence in the US in 2024, according to a Reuters estimate, the Soufan Centre said. “The uptick in violence is one of the most sustained increases in political violence since the 1970s and has led to rising concern among law enforcement and government officials.”

Both the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have raised concerns that “election-related grievances” such as belief in widespread voter fraud, could motivate extremists to commit violence in the weeks before and after the election, the bulletin said.

Extremists with “anger toward perceived political adversaries” are likely to pose the largest threat and may target election-related sites in the coming weeks up through inauguration day in January 2025, according to an intelligence bulletin issued by both agencies earlier in October. 

Meanwhile, in terms of foreign policy, the international community is bracing for the potential outcomes.

While a Kamala Harris presidency would bring a degree of continuity to foreign policy, a Donald Trump presidency would have echoes of his first term, in which he bristled against the traditional post-World War II international order, bringing up issues with allies in Asia and even with Nato, said Mr Herman, who just months ago released a widely acclaimed book on covering the Trump presidency titled Behind The White House Curtain.

Trump has also claimed that he will end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours; most analysts expect that he will force a settlement that will be to Russia’s advantage. 

Even if some countries would like to see Trump back in power, a second term would bring more transactionalism and disruption, Mr Herman said.