AI may boost global trade value by nearly 40% by 2040: WTO
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WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says a central question is whether AI will lift opportunities for all.
PHOTO: EPA
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GENEVA – Artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of global trade by almost 40 per cent by 2040, thanks to cost reductions and productivity gains, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said on Sept 17.
In its latest annual World Trade Report, it identified AI as one of the few bright spots, as the global trading system has been upended by the US slapping high tariffs on its trading partners.
“AI holds major promise to boost trade by lowering trade costs and reshaping the production of goods and services,” WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said while presenting the report.
She added that WTO simulations suggest AI could increase exports of goods and services by nearly 40 per cent above current trends.
However, much like the technology threatens to disrupt labour markets, a lack of proper policies could see lower income countries miss out on the opportunities.
“One important question is whether AI will lift opportunities for all, or whether it will deepen existing inequalities and exclusion,” Dr Okonjo-Iweala said.
If lower-income economies fail to bridge the digital divide, WTO economists calculate they would see only an 8 per cent gain in incomes by 2040, far below the 14 per cent boost in higher-income economies.
However, if they narrow the digital infrastructure gap by 50 per cent and adopt AI more widely, they could match the gains in higher-income countries.
“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies,” Dr Okonjo-Iweala added.
The WTO found that countries are applying more restrictions on the trade of AI-related goods.
Nearly 500 restrictions were in place in 2024, mostly by higher- and medium-income economies. That compares to 130 restrictions in 2012. AFP
