2023 to be hottest year on record after ‘extraordinary’ November

PARIS – The year 2023 will be the hottest in recorded history after an “extraordinary” November became the sixth record-breaking month in a row, Europe’s climate monitor said on Dec 6, piling pressure on the

COP28 talks

to act on climate change.

November 2023 smashed the previous November heat record, pushing 2023’s global average temperature to 1.46 deg C warmer than pre-industrial levels, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said.

There had been warnings that 2023 could take the title of hottest year from 2016 – particularly after records toppled in September and October – but this is the first time it has been confirmed.

November also had two days that were 2 deg C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

Not one such day had ever before been recorded.

Dr Samantha Burgess, deputy head of the Copernicus service, said 2023 has “now had six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons”.

“The extraordinary global November temperatures, including two days warmer (at) 2 deg C above pre-industrial (levels), mean that 2023 is the warmest year in recorded history,” she said.

Scientists say data from ice cores, tree rings and the like suggest 2023 could be the warmest in more than 100,000 years.

To phase out or down?

The announcement of the record comes as negotiators from nearly 200 countries at the COP28 talks in Dubai debate the text of a final draft agreement that responds to a damning stocktake of progress on limiting warming.

A crucial aspect of this is the fate of oil, gas and coal – the main drivers of human-caused planet heating.

Battle lines at the talks in oil-rich United Arab Emirates have previously been drawn on whether to agree to “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels.

But a new phrase committing to an “orderly and just” phase-out of fossil fuels could signal a consensus candidate, giving countries different timelines to cut emissions depending on their level of development and reliance on hydrocarbons.

But there is another option: No mention at all of fossil fuels, which reflects opposition from nations including Saudi Arabia and China, according to several observers who attended the closed meetings.

Another draft paragraph urging a “rapid phase-out of unabated coal power this decade” has also faced opposition from China, South Africa and Vietnam, the observers said.

A new version of the draft text expected on the morning of Dec 6 will be sifted through at the talks, which are due to end on Dec 12.

‘Temperatures will keep rising’

Meanwhile, 2023 has seen a series of devastating extreme weather events linked to climate change, even as the world’s carbon emissions continue to rise.

According to Copernicus, whose records go back to 1940, the first 11 months of 2023 have been 0.13 deg C hotter than in 2016, the previous warmest year.

Global temperatures in the second half of 2023 are believed to have been partly propelled by the El Nino weather pattern, which has caused fewer “anomalies” so far in 2023 than in 2015 to 2016, the Copernicus service said.

September to November, the three months marking autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, were the hottest “by a large margin”, according to Copernicus.

November alone was 1.75 deg C warmer than pre-industrial levels – and marked a significant 0.85 deg C increase from 1991 to 2020, Copernicus said.

Such numbers could suggest that the world is coming uncomfortably close to warming 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial times, which is a key threshold in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

However, to actually breach the Paris limit, global temperatures would need to stay above 1.5 deg C over decades.

“As long as greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, we can’t expect different outcomes,” Copernicus head Carlo Buontempo said.

“The temperature will keep rising, and so will the impacts of heatwaves and droughts,” he added.

On Dec 6, researchers warned of 26 “tipping points”, such as melting ice sheets and dying tropical coral reefs, that have the potential to unleash a domino effect of irreversible catastrophes across the planet. AFP