Aryna Sabalenka favourite at Australian Open but faces Iga Swiatek, US threats
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Aryna Sabalenka hitting a shot during a practice session in Melbourne ahead of the Australian Open which starts on Jan 18, when the Belarusian faces French wild card Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah in the first round.
PHOTO: AFP
MELBOURNE – Top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka is favourite to win a third Australian Open in four years, but faces strong opposition from a US contingent led by Coco Gauff and defending champion Madison Keys.
World No. 2 Iga Swiatek is another big threat while two-time Melbourne champion Naomi Osaka will hope to be in the mix when the first Grand Slam of the year begins on Jan 18.
Keys stunned Sabalenka 12 months ago
Three other Americans are ranked inside the world’s top 10 – Gauff (third), Amanda Anisimova (fourth) and Jessica Pegula (sixth).
The 21-year-old Gauff beat Sabalenka in the French Open final in 2025
Speaking at the mixed-team United Cup, where she launched her 2026 campaign, Gauff said she spent the off-season “just overall becoming better and more comfortable with my game”.
Her serve has been her biggest failing and she suffered a surprise loss to Spain’s Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
The 24-year-old Anisimova has emerged as a serious threat after enjoying the best year of her career in 2025, reaching the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open and winning WTA 1000 titles in Beijing and Doha.
She also made the season-ending WTA Finals for the first time, going down to Sabalenka in three sets in a high-octane semi-final.
“She always pushes me to play my best tennis,” said Sabalenka.
Like Pegula, a first Major title remains elusive for Anisimova despite going close.
Swiatek, Sabalenka’s long-term rival for the top ranking, is overdue something special in Melbourne.
The Pole is a six-time Grand Slam champion, but the Australian Open is the only Slam she has yet to win.
She matched her best Melbourne performance by reaching the semi-finals in 2025, and did so in rampant style, only to lose to an inspired Keys.
“At a Grand Slam, you have to really play great for two weeks, not have any bad days, be consistent,” the 24-year-old said at the United Cup.
Japan’s former world No. 1 Osaka would be a popular winner if she were to add to her 2019 and 2021 Melbourne triumphs.
Now in 16th place, the 28-year-old must rank as an outsider, capable of conjuring up her best tennis in flashes but unable to do it consistently and stay fit for long stretches.
World No. 5 Elena Rybakina, the Moscow-born Kazakh, is also a player to watch after beating Sabalenka in the WTA Finals title decider
But it is hard to look beyond Sabalenka.
Having been stunned by the unfancied Keys, the Belarusian suffered another Grand Slam heartbreak in the Roland Garros final against Gauff.
She then went down to Anisimova in the Wimbledon last four, before roaring back to get revenge over the American and retain her US Open title.
Sabalenka, the Australian Open champion in 2023 and 2024, will be in an unfamiliar role when she goes into the tournament as runner-up from the 2025 edition.
“Honestly, there is no difference,” the hard-hitting player said earlier in January, when she won the Brisbane International title for a second successive year in an ominous statement of intent.
“Every time, if I’m defending champion, if I lost first round last year, the goal is always the same – to bring my best tennis and to improve my game.”
Outside the title contenders, there will be fascination with how Venus Williams performs when she becomes the oldest woman to play in the main draw at Melbourne.
The seven-time Grand Slam singles champion was handed a wild card aged 45.
The American, who has played only a limited number of singles matches in recent years, will compete at the Australian Open for the first time since 2021. AFP
