July 18 Irish Oaks form analysis
Thundering On to another Oaks
Epsom Oaks winner can bounce back in the Irish equivalent at The Curragh
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Joseph O’Brien’s Thundering On (Dylan Browne McMonagle) scoring the easiest of wins in the Group 1 Epsom Oaks (2,400m) on June 5.
PHOTO: RACING AND SPORTS
1 Amelia Earhart
A big and strong filly who started favourite for the Oaks at Epsom, after a convincing Listed win at Chester. Disappointed at Epsom without any obvious reason, so will need to revert to her best.
2 Beautify
A Group 2 winner over 1,200m in 2025 and a near-miss later in a Group 1. However, since then she has looked vulnerable with this latest rise in trip needing to make a radical difference.
3 Cameo
Her Listed Lingfield win confirmed her talent and stamina. But she then ran out of gas in the straight in the Epsom Oaks. She did not really improve on that when third in a Group 3 at Naas.
4 Composing
Plenty of high-quality performances last season, including a decisive Group 2 victory over 1,400m here. Gradual progress in three starts this season, without anything exciting enough to recommend her.
5 Earth Shot
Having only her fifth career start, but has looked increasingly good. Notably when surging out wide and leading in the nick of time in a fiercely competitive fast-ground Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes (2,400m) at Royal Ascot. Trip ideal. Good chance.
6 Inis Mor
Smart filly from David Menuisier yard. She continued her upward progress with a terrific third in the Group 1 French Oaks (Prix de Diane) at Chantilly, briefly looking like landing a surprise win. Some issues at this rise to 2,400m, though her dam did win over 3,000m. Supplemented as yard is confident she can see it out.
7 Johanna Walsh
Sharp upward progress from her maiden victory at Leopardstown in May to her second to Earth Shot in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes over this trip at Royal Ascot – headed only in the last strides. An exciting filly.
8 Rebel Moon
Unbeaten in both starts, latterly when swooping from the rear to land a Group 3 over 2,100m at Naas in June, finding plenty under pressure to beat a much more experienced runner-up in Caught U Sleeping. Up in grade and trip again. Supplemented.
9 Sparan Nua
Unbeaten in all three starts for her veteran trainer, latterly proving herself at this trip with impressive late acceleration in a Group 3 at Cork. Still learning on the job and looks to belong on the shortlist for this Classic. Supplemented.
10 Sugar Island
A strong stayer, probably best suited to slow ground, unlikely on July 18. And the surface was heavy when she won a Group 3 over 1,600m here last October. Led most of the way in the Oaks at Epsom, finishing third.
11 Thundering On
Held up in last, but exciting to watch her saunter past rival after rival to easily win the Oaks at Epsom. Not in the same red-hot form over shorter and on much faster ground at The Curragh last time. Good or slower ground would be a big help.
