Formula One's desert showdown is a feast for number-crunchers

DOHA - Only Lando Norris can become Formula One world champion in Qatar this weekend but the McLaren driver could also be overtaken in the title race by both teammate Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen.

There are sufficient permutations to satisfy the hungriest of number-crunchers, or concern the anxious nail-biter, ahead of the penultimate round of the season at the desert Lusail circuit.

If it all goes horribly wrong for Norris on Saturday and Sunday then Australian Piastri or Red Bull's reigning champion Verstappen could go to the final race in Abu Dhabi the following week in the lead.

In one mathematically possible extreme scenario, the top three drivers could even line up on December 7 level on points.

WHAT DOES NORRIS NEED TO DO?

The title is still Norris's to lose, however.

In a nutshell, he needs to emerge from the weekend having scored two points more than his two rivals to be sure -- although extending his lead by one point could suffice in some calculations.

The 26-year-old Briton has a 24 point lead on the pair, who are level-pegging on 366 points, with 58 remaining to be won -- 33 of them in Qatar from a Saturday sprint and Sunday night race.

He cannot secure the title on Saturday, even if he takes all eight points and his rivals draw a blank, because whilst that would leave him 32 points clear there would still be 50 available at that stage.  

He can wrap it up on Sunday, and hand McLaren both titles in the same year for the first time since Mika Hakkinen's first crown in 1998, when the total points left available after the race goes down to 25.

The McLaren drivers are level 7-7 on wins, with Verstappen on six, but Norris is 8-3 ahead of Piastri on second places -- a key consideration if a countback proves necessary.

Norris could even take the title by finishing ninth on Sunday (two points) if neither Verstappen nor Piastri add to their tallies all weekend.

But if either Verstappen or Piastri max out by winning both races, and Norris fails to score again after his team's shock disqualification in Las Vegas last weekend, then one of them would leave with a nine point lead.

Should Verstappen do that then the Dutchman would be fancied for a fifth successive title in an astonishing comeback after falling 104 points behind then-leader Piastri at the end of August.

COULD THE TOP THREE GO LEVEL ON POINTS? 

For the top three to go on to Abu Dhabi on level terms, an extraordinary sequence would have to happen.

For example: If Norris took one point from the weekend while one rival won the main race but crashed out of the sprint (25), and the other finished second in both (18+7).

That would leave all square on 391 points and a winner-takes-all finale, just like Abu Dhabi 2021 when Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton were tied going into the last race.

If Verstappen wins one of the last two races, and another driver from outside McLaren or Red Bull takes the other, then the top three in the standings would all end the season with seven wins apiece. REUTERS