Will the Asian Tiger roar again at the World Cup?

SINGAPORE– The last time an Asian football team truly upended the world order was in 2002.

That year, South Korea, who were co-hosts of the World Cup alongside Japan, famously eliminated Italy and Spain to reach the semi-finals, where they eventually bowed out.

That was a time when the “golden goal” rule still existed. If a game went to extra time, the first team to score won instantly, which was how South Korea knocked out Italy.

The rule was removed from football by the International Football Association Board (IFAB) in 2004. For all the advancements that have happened in the sport in the past two decades, what has remained unchanged is the fact that no Asian team have reached a quarter-final since.

In the 96-year-history of the World Cup, only twice – the other one being North Korea in 1966 when the tournament featured only 16 teams – have Asian teams reached the last eight.

But with the expanded 48-team World Cup set to feature a record nine Asian representatives, could this be where the continent takes that next leap again?

There are signs that the time has come.

The last edition in Qatar saw a record three teams from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) – Japan, South Korea, and Australia – reach the knockout, although the trio were eliminated in the round of 16.

But Japan topped a group containing Spain and Germany, South Korea beat Portugal in the group stages while Australia were only narrowly beaten by eventual champions Argentina.

This time, there are more contenders from the region.

Joining usual suspects South Korea, Japan and Australia are debutants Jordan and Uzbekistan.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, who were all part of the last edition, will also fly the Asian flag again, while Iraq secured their first World Cup appearance in 40 years.

More teams, more chances?

Paul Williams, who has covered Asian football for over a decade and is the producer and co-host of The Asian Game podcast, said the expanded 48-team format, particularly the inclusion of some third-placed teams in the knockout stage, makes it “more likely than not” that more Asian nations will advance from the groups.

However, he argued that perceptions of success will need to be recalibrated, questioning whether reaching or winning in the new round of 32 should carry the same significance as previously.

With the new format, Williams noted that progression could come with only one win, citing Saudi Arabia’s shock victory over Argentina in 2022 as an example of a result that might have been enough to advance. While acknowledging that some Asian teams still face “awfully tough groups”, he expects at least “five or six nations” from Asia to reach the knockout rounds.

He said: “Asia hasn’t had a nation in the quarter-finals since 2002, so I think if we can have one or two nations make it that far that would have to be considered a success, especially as that would mean winning at least two knockout games.”

Others are less convinced that more teams will lead to a better Asian representation in the later stage.

Former Japan Times football reporter Dan Orlowitz said: “I don’t particularly think the expanded format gives Asia a better chance. The continent’s chances have always rested on its top teams (Japan, South Korea, Iran, Australia, maybe Saudi Arabia).

“I think the elite Asian sides have depth to get through to the round of 16, but there are just so many unique factors to this tournament that it’s hard to say whether that will be enough.”

Big challenge for debutants

Jordan and Uzbekistan will become the 14th and 15th different nations from the planet’s most populous continent to feature at the World Cup, overcoming years of near misses and heartache to qualify.

Jordan are in Group J alongside defending champions Argentina, Algeria and Austria and their players, including Rennes winger and trailblazer Mousa Al-Tamari, will hope to spring a few surprises.

The odds are stacked against the Uzbeks, having been thrown into Group K with Portugal, Colombia and Democratic Republic of the Congo, but the White Wolves will hope that the experience of head coach Fabio Cannavaro – who captained the 2006 Italy side to the World Cup – will come in handy.

Cannavaro will not be the only new coach leading a team into the World Cup. Saudi Arabia appointed Greek Georgios Donis to replace Frenchman Herve Renard less than two months before the tournament. Donis has been coaching club football in Saudi Arabia since 2021, but he will need to adapt quickly to international management if the Green Falcons are to spring any surprises on the global stage in America.

Qatar will hope to improve on their performance in 2022, ,when the hosts scored just one goal and were eliminated in the group stage. They will face co-hosts Canada, Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B.

Iraq find themselves in arguably the toughest group among the 12, and even a point against World Cup favourites France, Norway and Senegal will be seen as a success. The Lions of Mesopotamia, who will be led by Australian Graham Arnold, are back at the tournament for the first time since Mexico 1986.

While Jordan, Iraq and Uzbekistan may benefit from a pressure-free environment, Iran heads into the tournament under trying circumstances owing to the ongoing conflict with hosts United States.

“This is the best send-off in the last four ​World Cup campaigns,” Iranian FA (FFIRI) President Mehdi Taj told state TV at a World Cup departure rally attended by thousands of fans in Tehran’s Enqelab Square on May 14.

“The players are with the people, ​and the crowd stands with the country’s dignity, honour, and strength. Whatever the ⁠result, may Iran’s flag be raised there and defended.”

Iran, who have never advanced from the group stage, suffered two losses against the United States and England, and claimed a solitary victory over Wales at the 2022 edition.

Asia’s top contenders

South Korea will be led by captain Son Heung-min at what will probably be his last World Cup as he turns 34 during the tournament. They are in Group A with co-hosts Mexico, South Africa and Czech Republic.

But fans will not feel as confident after their consecutive losses in away friendly matches, a 4-0 defeat at the hands of Ivory Coast on March 28 and a 1-0 loss to Austria three days later.

But television analyst Kim Dae-gil remains optimistic. He told the Korean Times: “I think Korea will get to at least the round of 16. Just looking at the group stage opponents, Korea won’t have to expand as much energy as in some previous tournaments.

“We can beat Czechs and South Africa six times out of 10. And if we qualify for the knockouts as the top seed or No. 2 seed, then we will meet a beatable opponent in the round of 32.”

Australia, who are in Group D alongside US, Paraguay and Turkey, will bank on a defensive organisation under head coach Tony Popovic.

Lion City Sailors defender Bailey Wright, who was part of the Socceroos’ World Cup squad in 2014 and played at the 2022 edition, said that the team would want to achieve “better than what we did at the last World Cup.”

The 33-year-old added: “The last World Cup was a good one for us where we got knocked out by Argentina in the round of 16, but achieved a lot of history along the way. So I’m sure the current group of players will want to do better than that, and I believe they can.

“From what I see, there are a lot of good young players with a good sprinkle of experience there too. So I think we go into it with confidence and belief that we’ve got stronger and stronger with each World Cup.”

But none will carry as much expectation or inspire as much confidence among Asian fans as Japan.

The Samurai Blue have put together a string of impressive results on the road to the World Cup, with historic victories in friendlies against England and Brazil.

And while Japanese fans are still looking for a first-ever top eight berth, the team are aiming even higher. Japan coach Hajime Moriyasu believes that his team can win the World Cup, despite the loss of Kaoru Mitoma dampening the mood.

The Brighton & Hove Albion winger, arguably Japan’s biggest star, will miss the global showpiece with a hamstring injury which came less than a week before Moriyasu named his squad.

Former Japan international Yuki Kobayashi, 34, believes Japan could go all the way.

He pointed to how most of the squad was now playing important roles for club sides in Europe. Japan’s World Cup squad features only three players from the domestic J.League.

Kobayashi who previously played in the Dutch and Belgium leagues said: “Being in Europe helps because tactically, physically, mentally, everything is different there so you arrive at the World Cup in a very good state.”

“And they beat a favourite like England recently. They have a chance, of course, for a quarter-final or maybe even more if luck is on their side.”

Orlowitz pointed to the recent wins and assessed that there are “a lot of reasons to be optimistic”, as this is the best lead-up to a World Cup that Japan has ever had in terms of results.

He added: “Anything short of the quarter-finals would be a disappointment. Getting there would be historical and anything beyond that would be an incredible feat.”

And so North America awaits Asia, where an Asian tiger could finally unleash its mighty roar.