Why France are favourites to reclaim the crown at the 2026 World Cup

SINGAPORE – On June 11, the 2026 World Cup will begin exactly 1,270 days after Argentina lifted the trophy in Qatar, closing one chapter in football history and opening another.

Three and a half years on from that South American triumph, the world’s best 48 teams converge on North America for the first World Cup jointly hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico.

France, currently No. 3 in the FIFA world rankings, are the favourites, with second-ranked Spain close behind after establishing themselves as Europe’s best.

World Cup favourites are often established on the back of recent track records in the tournament and the quality of their squads, and the French rank first on both accounts.

In captain and Real Madrid star Kylian Mbappe, Paris Saint-Germain’s 2025 Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele and Bayern Munich hotshot Michael Olise, they have three players who have combined for 84 goals and 49 assists for their clubs during the 2025-26 season.

France are also aiming for their third consecutive World Cup final appearance, after beating Croatia in 2018 in Russia and losing to Argentina on penalties in 2022.

An additional but crucial factor is that the expanded 48-team World Cup will come at the end of a gruelling club season.

This places a premium on squad depth, an area where France hold a clear advantage.

The fact that Manchester City playmaker Rayan Cherki, Inter Milan striker Marcus Thuram and PSG winger Desire Doue are all likely to be second-fiddle players tells a story of its own.

Former US national midfielder and Fox Sports analyst Stu Holden claimed that France’s squad depth is almost unfair, quipping that “they could fill two teams that could get to a semi-final”.

Holden, who picked France to win the World Cup in an interview with Goal.com, added: “Nobody has more big-game experience, nobody’s getting fazed as little as the French and I have them pretty solid as my favourite to win the World Cup.”

A surprise 2-1 defeat by the Ivory Coast on June 5 will do little to dampen the mood, given that the tie saw a flurry of substitutions and missing personnel – Dembele and William Saliba did not feature while Aurelien Tchouameni, Mbappe and Olise were taken off at half-time when Les Bleus were in the lead.

France will kick off their group-stage campaign against Senegal on June 16, take on Iraq six days later before facing Norway on June 26.

It is by no means an easy group and convincing performances against Norway, who boast one of the best strikers on the planet in Erling Haaland, and Senegal, arguably Africa’s best, would send the strongest signal of intent.

But if there is one weakness in the French team, it is that their midfield looks short of creativity and steel, a department in which the other top European contenders Spain, England and Portugal excel in.

The poor form of Liverpool defender Ibrahima Konate and doubts over Arsenal centre-back Saliba’s fitness mean there are real questions over who will line up alongside Bayern defender Dayot Upamecano at the heart of France’s backline.

Players such as 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri and Pedri will give Spain the edge in midfield, while England’s likely triumvirate will contain English Premier League-winning midfielder Declan Rice, the in-form and much-wanted Nottingham Forest man Elliot Anderson, as well as Real’s Jude Bellingham.

And then there is Portugal, who boast arguably the best midfield at the World Cup, between Manchester City’s evergreen Bernardo Silva, Premier League assist record holder Bruno Fernandes and PSG duo Vitinha and Joao Neves.

If the French falter, Spain, England and Portugal look best placed to be Europe’s other top contenders. Luis de la Fuente’s Spanish side stormed to success at Euro 2024 but the lack of a leading striker to be a difference-maker in tight matches could be their Achilles heel.

The Three Lions’ fans will be singing “It’s coming home” again and their chances of ending a 60-year drought will hinge heavily on whether Harry Kane can carry on his scintillating club form – where he scored 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga games for Bayern – into the World Cup.

For Portugal, plenty will depend on whether captain Cristiano Ronaldo will help or hinder their mission to become world champions for the first time.

It bodes well for the European contenders that it is a region that has historically dominated the World Cup, producing the winners of 12 editions.

South America is just behind with 10 titles, the latest of which came in Qatar from Argentina.

La Albiceleste will look to become only the third team to retain their World Cup crown, joining Italy (1934, 1938) and Brazil (1958, 1962) in winning back-to-back tournaments.

Lionel Scaloni’s team, who will still be able to call upon the magic of Lionel Messi, won the 2024 Copa America on American soil and comfortably topped the South American World Cup qualifying table, which makes them one of the top contenders again.

Coaches and catalysts

But beyond the front runners, there is another South American team that would fancy their chances of emerging as surprise winners.

Brazil have not reached a World Cup final since being crowned champions in 2002 but with Italian tactician Carlo Ancelotti at the helm, it will be unwise to rule them out of the reckoning.

The first coach to win league titles in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain as well as a record five-time Champions League winner as a coach, his pedigree in club management is clear.

The question is if it will translate onto the international scene.

But at least the motivation will not be lacking. The World Cup is the final puzzle piece left for Ancelotti to complete his glittering managerial career.

He has already given a glimpse of how he could combine the traditional flair of Brazil with his trademark tactical discipline.

Ancelotti, who turns 67 on June 10, told Reuters in May: “Brazil has the same qualities as always but you have to support that creativity with organisation, commitment and attitude.

“Talent is important, but to beat talent, you need organisation. And yes, we’re going to make it happen because you can teach organisation, but you can’t teach talent.”

Meanwhile, a German will also look to stamp his mark on the international scene after a successful club career.

After several near misses under Gareth Southgate, England hope Thomas Tuchel can deliver a first title since 1966.

Tuchel is already feeling the heat, after a surprise 1-0 loss to Japan in an international friendly in March and a 3-1 defeat by Senegal in June 2025 still fresh in memory.

Leaving out the likes of Harry Maguire, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Trent Alexander-Arnold has not helped with the noise either.

But Tuchel’s tactical intelligence, adaptability and proven success on the big stage – he won the Champions League with Chelsea in 2020-21 – mean that he could be the difference between going home empty-handed again and football “coming home”.

The 52-year-old said during a press conference to reveal his 26-man squad in May: “The goal is to try and win it. We don’t want to be shy about it, but also to respect the game and our opponents and the obstacles that come with the tournament itself.

“Of course, we need a bit of luck and we need to have our selection right. We need to stay healthy and catch a momentum to build a brotherhood, play with confidence and play with courage. We’ll have to take advantage of special moments. Of course, if we go into knockout football, it’s a game of margins and it will not be done without luck and nerves of steel.”

But ultimately, all roads lead back to the favourites and France will also be fuelled by a different kind of managerial motivation.

France coach Didier Deschamps, who led Les Bleus to World Cup success in 2018, two years after reaching the European Championship final on home soil, has confirmed that he will leave the post after the 2026 tournament.

After 14 years in charge, delivering one final World Cup triumph would represent the perfect farewell for the 57-year-old and a fitting end to one of the most successful managerial eras in international football.

Come July 19, America and the rest of the world may well be feeling blue.