Women’s European Championship tests gap between elites and underdogs

ZURICH – Two years ago, before the first 32-team Women’s World Cup, there was widespread anticipation of one-sided matches. The 2019 World Cup featured 24 sides and the United States recorded a 13-goal win over Thailand in the group stage. Surely, including eight weaker teams would prompt similar results?

Such fears were misplaced. Granted, the Netherlands beat Vietnam by 7-0, but the gap between the elite and the outsiders had narrowed.

Traditionally strong nations, including Germany, Italy and Brazil, crashed out at the group stage. Colombia, South Africa and Nigeria were impressive. Smaller nations, such as Haiti, New Zealand and Jamaica, were genuinely competitive. But what if there was another factor? What if the traditional elite are not as good as they should be?

The 2025 European Championship, which began on July 2 in Switzerland, will be the latest test.

Among the 16 teams who qualified for Euro 2025, there are a half-dozen realistic contenders, distributed somewhat unevenly across the four groups – none in Group A, Spain in Group B, Germany and Sweden in Group C, and England, France and the Netherlands in Group D. All but the Netherlands, ranked 11th, are in Fifa’s top 10 positions in the global standings. Yet none of the six appears to have improved significantly over the past couple of years.

World champions Spain are the favourites, but they are not perfect. They produce more technically gifted players, like Alexia Putellas, than any nation but have few ruthless goalscorers.

Germany once dominated this competition, but they have undergone a major rebuild. They are without several veterans, including superstar striker Alexandra Popp. They lack proven defenders.

Sweden won the first women’s European Championship in 1984, a reflection of the Nordic nations’ embracing the women’s game before the powerhouses of men’s European football. Their head start had long-lasting effects: For much of this century, Sweden had the best league in women’s European football. Now that the more populous European nations are taking the women’s game seriously, Sweden have slipped.

England won the European Championship at home in 2022, and the domestic game has progressed significantly, but their build-up to the tournament has been disrupted. The withdrawals of goalkeeper Mary Earps and defender Millie Bright, who both started every game of England’s runs to major finals in 2022 and 2023, have hinted at deeper problems with team spirit.

The Dutch look less fearsome these days, largely because Vivianne Miedema, once the most complete striker in Europe, has had three years of injuries.

Finally, France is eternally a mystery, continually producing good players but failing to click collectively. The French have never reached the final of a Euro, World Cup or Olympics. On paper, they have few weaknesses. On the field, they often underwhelm.

So what is going on? How did Europe take first, second and third place (Spain, England and Sweden) at the 2023 World Cup, and yet it feels like their best sides should be better? There are probably three major shifts happening.

Firstly, in Europe, the outstanding version of the women’s game is now club football, rather than international football.

When the US were the dominant force, the structure of the National Women’s Soccer League ensured balance and competitiveness; players were distributed relatively evenly across the league and the national team remained the best side in the sport.

European football is very different, concentrating players at a handful of clubs. With more movement of players between countries and more players being imported from outside Europe, top clubs now hoard players and perform at a higher level than international sides. As a consequence, going from the Champions League to the Euro often feels like a step down in quality.

The second factor is the tactical evolution of the women’s game. It is less individualistic and increasingly collective.

A decade ago, it felt enough for major nations to rely on a couple of stars who would dominate. But now teams defend better as a unit and opponents need integrated movement to break them down. Teams press higher up the field, so opponents need practised passing moves to bypass them.

These concepts can only be perfected on the training ground, but at the international level, coaches do not have much time with their squads. It is a clear advantage that Spain can count on almost an entire starting line-up that plays together for Barcelona in Liga F.

Finally, the rise of the underdogs cannot be separated from all this because it is clear that the world’s best players now hail from a wider range of nations.

In the 2014 voting for Fifa’s World Player of the Year award, the top 10 female players were from seven strong women’s football nations: the US, Brazil, Japan, Germany, France, Spain and Sweden. For the equivalent vote a decade later, in December, the top 10 included Barbra Banda of Zambia, Tabitha Chawinga of Malawi and Khadija Shaw of Jamaica.

The game has improved immeasurably over the past decade. The lopsided draw will create major showdowns in the group stage and allow at least one outsider to make the semi-finals.

Ultimately, one of the six favourites are likely to win the Euro, but their days of expecting huge victories are over. NYTIMES