Experts not sure Olympics can go on

TOKYO • The Tokyo Olympics next July will be a "uniquely risky" event, demanding flexibility from organisers amid the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic.

The dangers of holding a large-scale event like the Games will be particularly acute if a vaccine has not been rolled out by then, according to medical experts.

The Japanese government and the International Olympic Committee made the unprecedented decision last month to delay the Games for a year, as the world battles the Covid-19 disease that has infected more than 2.4 million people and killed over 165,000 as of yesterday.

But given the worsening situation, questions persist whether the Games can go ahead 15 months from now as a vaccine could still be at least a year away, according to the most optimistic estimates.

"When we talk about bringing sports back with packed stadiums, I really think that is something we are going to have to wait for a vaccine to be able to do," said Zachary Binney, an epidemiologist at Atlanta's Emory University.

Tokyo 2020 will run from July 23 to Aug 8 next year, with organisers expecting few changes to the original calendar with a full crowd in attendance.

However, Binney feels that is being wildly optimistic.

On how soon a vaccine can be rolled out to the masses, Dr Anthony Fauci, the top American infectious diseases specialist who is coordinating the United States' response to Covid-19, has said that it will take 12 to 18 months to develop, test and approve for public use.

Agreeing with his counterpart on the timeline, Binney added: "Every person that you add to a gathering adds risk.

"So once you get up to 50,000, 70,000, 100,000 (fans)... that is an enormous amount of risk to be taking on without a vaccine."

Even if a vaccine is found, scores of people will then need to get immunised - something that will take a considerable amount of time.

Jason Kindrachuk, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Manitoba, said: "It is going to push the limits right up to the border of when the Olympics should be starting.

"You want to get people vaccinated not right at the point of the Olympics, but a little bit beforehand, so they build up that protective immunity."

As such, Kentaro Iwata, who drew international attention for his criticism of the Japanese government after it chose to quarantine thousands of passengers on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship in February rather than bring them on shore, is doubtful the Games can proceed in the current climate.

The professor of infectious diseases at Kobe University said: "I don't think the Olympics are likely to be held next year. Japan might be able to control this disease by next summer and I wish we could.

"But I don't think that would happen everywhere on earth."

In response to the unease, the Tokyo 2020 organising committee yesterday said it was solely focused on staging the Games next year, declining to comment on "speculative questions".

REUTERS