Unvaccinated are 8½ times more likely to die from virus

There are more reports of people dying from Covid-19 complications this month than in the 18 months prior, an indication of the virulent nature of the Delta strain and its impact on the unvaccinated here.

The country's first death was recorded on March 21 last year.

As at Wednesday, Singapore had recorded 264 deaths in total, with 169 patients reported to have succumbed to Covid-19 complications this month. Yesterday, the figures grew by another 16.

"When the Delta variant first reached Singapore, our case numbers were still quite low as we had more aggressive contact tracing and quarantining measures and were actively trying to slow down the spread to buy time to get people vaccinated," said Associate Professor Alex Cook, vice-dean of research at the National University of Singapore's Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health.

"However, we've now reduced the effort to prevent transmission, such as by making quarantine and isolation less onerous.

"This is due to our high vaccination rates, which have made Covid-19 become a much milder disease for most of us. But this would mean a deadlier pandemic for the unvaccinated," he added.

A closer look at the numbers makes this point clear - the unvaccinated are around 8½ times more likely to die from the virus compared with a vaccinated person - based on calculations by The Straits Times using figures recorded as at Wednesday.

This ratio was arrived at by using the death rate of those who did not receive a single dose and comparing it against the death rate of those who had received two doses. The Ministry of Health only started to release data on the vaccination status of those who died in late September.

Prof Cook noted that if there were no restrictions, the death rate will be higher.

"For anyone middle-aged or older, it's a huge gamble to be unvaccinated, with everything to lose and very little to gain," he added.

At a press conference on Oct 2, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said that unvaccinated people are 14 times more likely to need intensive care or die, compared with those who are vaccinated.

Around three in four who were reported to have died this month, as at Wednesday, were individuals who received a single dose of a vaccine or were unvaccinated.

The unvaccinated accounted for 84 out of 169 of the reported deaths here this month as at Wednesday, and 30 more of the reported deaths had only a single dose of the vaccine.

Prof Cook noted that Singapore's experience is not unique.

The Guardian reported last month that while 80 per cent of the adult population in Britain are fully vaccinated, there has been an uptick in unvaccinated people ending up in hospital.

Dr David Windsor, a critical care consultant in south-west England, told The Guardian: "What we are seeing right now is a large number of unvaccinated people coming into hospital - far more than we would expect."

In the United States, the estimate is that between 98 per cent and 99 per cent of Americans dying of Covid-19 complications are unvaccinated. The situation was so grave that US President Joe Biden and the director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Dr Rochelle Walensky, coined the term "pandemic of the unvaccinated".

Singapore's death rate remained fairly flat initially, in part due to tighter measures such as the revision to phase two (heightened alert) in July to stem the spike in community cases.

By the end of August, Singapore's vaccination rate had hit the 80 per cent mark. But some people remained hesitant, and others reluctant, to get vaccinated against Covid-19. Currently, around 84 per cent have been fully vaccinated, and 85 per cent have received at least one dose. This leaves around 15 per cent unvaccinated, with a significant proportion being children below the age of 12.

Expectations are that approval will be given early next year for children aged between five and 12 to receive the shots as well.

Northeast Medical Group chief executive Tan Teck Jack said: "People are usually worried about the side effects of mRNA vaccines. Some of these concerns include pre-existing drug allergies, adverse reactions to previous mRNA vaccines and genuine concern for children or elderly with chronic illnesses."

Dr Tan added: "Most of these concerns can be easily addressed and most of them simply need reassurances."