Ukraine conflict holds lessons on how war could be avoided: SM Teo

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has seen observers trying to draw parallels between the ongoing conflict and a possible situation over Taiwan, but for Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean, they are quite different.

Rather, the most important questions to ask are: How did we end up in a situation where we have a war right in the middle of Europe? What were the steps and circumstances that led to this situation?

These are the lessons that have to be applied to the situation across the Taiwan Strait, Mr Teo said at a discussion on Friday.

"Analyse what is happening, and how can we take steps to avoid ending up in a situation where we have a war," he added.

Mr Teo, who is also Coordinating Minister for National Security, was speaking to about 400 people at the FutureChina Global Forum gala dinner at the Sands Expo and Convention Centre.

The 13th FutureChina Global Forum, organised by non-profit organisation Business China, focused on the theme of stability amid turbulence.

In the discussion moderated by Mr Robin Hu, Temasek's Asia vice-chairman and operating partner, Mr Teo noted that many have analysed the parallels between the Russia-Ukraine war and a possible situation between Taiwan and China.

He pointed out that at the structural level, Ukraine is recognised as an independent country and is a member of the United Nations, and the principles of the UN Charter apply with regard to the sanctity of its borders and its territorial integrity, and concerning the use of force - and this was why Singapore took a strong position at the UN, and imposed targeted sanctions against Russia.

In the case of Taiwan, most countries in the UN have a "one China" policy and recognise that Taiwan is a part of China, and that has been the settled position for many years since 1971, when the government in Beijing took the seat for China at the UN.

Mr Teo also said that at a strategic level, whether one country wants to fight in a war to achieve its aims and whether it is likely to succeed, it is a different matter.

He added: "There are some lessons to be learnt from the Ukraine war: Whether a war is worth fighting or not, whether it is winnable or not, and whether it is worth the cost or not, or whether one needs to find other solutions by peaceful means, before one goes into fighting."

On what it would take for the Russia-Ukraine war to end, Mr Teo said there needs to be more strategic thinking and conceptual ideas about Ukraine's and Russia's places in Europe.

On whether there is a possibility of a war between the US and China, given that the US has said it will defend Taiwan if necessary, Mr Teo said he believed both sides do not want a war. "Therefore, both sides should take the necessary steps to avoid one," he said.

He noted that there are positive signs, with both sides having indicated that the two presidents might meet. US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are widely expected to meet at the Group of 20 Summit in Bali on Nov 15 and 16.

He said it was important for leaders on both sides to engage and understand each other's core concerns, to see how one can avoid arriving at a situation "where you sort of walk into a war".

All three parties - the US, China and Taiwan - have stated that they have not changed positions with regard to one another, he noted.

"That's what they say. But actually the position has shifted for all three of them," he said.

"The previous position had brought us peace for the last 50 to 70 years across the strait. And the shifts in positions for all three bring a new level of uncertainty."

On where this new position will land, Mr Teo said it would be something for the leaders to decide.

Singapore has tried to bridge the differences across the Taiwan Strait and bring both sides together, he said, citing the Wang-Koo talks it hosted in 1993 as well as the historic meeting between President Xi and then Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou in 2015.

"But there must be a will, there must be wisdom on both sides to want to do that. And there must be a will and wisdom in the leaderships between China and the US also to want to maintain peace and cooperation. And that is beyond our control," he added.