COE quota for August to October inches up 1.2% to 15,283
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There will be 5,864 Category A COEs available between August and October, a 1.5 per cent increase.
ST PHOTO: DESMOND WEE
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SINGAPORE - The number of certificates of entitlement (COEs) available for bidding from August to October will rise to 15,283, a 1.2 per cent increase from the 15,104 certificates available between May and July.
The Land Transport Authority (LTA) said on July 23 that there will be 5,864 Category A COEs for the next three months, 1.5 per cent more than the 5,775 available from May to July. These COEs are used to register smaller, less powerful cars and electric vehicles (EVs).
For Category B, meant for larger, more powerful cars and EVs, there will be 3,980 certificates from August to October, 36 more than the current three-month period.
The quota for commercial vehicles (Category C) will rise by 5.4 per cent to 1,299. This is 67 more than the 1,232 commercial vehicle COEs available for bidding from May to July.
The commercial vehicle category is the only one where the vehicle population is allowed to grow, but only at a rate of 0.25 per cent yearly.
The number of COEs in the Open category (Category E) will fall slightly to 1,035, down 1.2 per cent from 1,048 at present. These certificates can be used to register all vehicle types except motorcycles, but tend to be used to register larger cars or EVs. The fall comes after the number of COEs under the category had risen by 12.9 per cent for the period between May and July.
As for motorcycles (Category D), the supply of COEs will remain unchanged at 3,105.
The main determinant in calculating COE supply is the average monthly number of vehicles that are deregistered over a rolling four-quarter period.
Since 2023, the LTA has also been injecting certificates into the pool that are due to expire in the next projected supply peak – a move the authority has said is meant to reduce quarter-on-quarter volatility in COE supply.
The car COE categories received their first injection
The upcoming quota for August to October will include 2,641 such redistributed COEs: 1,100 in Category A, 800 in Category B and 741 for motorcycles. This is an increase from 2,400 redistributed certificates from May to July.
LTA said it will announce in October the COE quota for the next bidding period between November 2024 and January 2025.
Industry watchers said they are not surprised that the increases to the COE quota have remained relatively flat, given the way its supply is being determined now.
Without a significant increase in supply and with continued pent-up demand, they expect there will be upward pressure on COE premiums in the coming tenders.
The difference in premiums between categories A and B could also continue to narrow, a trend that observers have attributed to popular mass-market EVs overcrowding Category A.
Mr Nicholas Wong, chief executive at Honda agent Kah Motor, said there are already more COEs available year to date in 2024 compared with 2023, but prices do not seem to be coming down.
“That is the worrisome part... The demand is insatiable and the (quota) increment is just too little to make a difference.”
Ms Sabrina Sng, managing director of sports car brand Lotus and EV brand Polestar at Wearnes Automotive, said a lot of new car models are slated to be launched in the third quarter of 2024, and this will likely spur demand.
Mr Ron Lim, head of sales at Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, highlighted the three-week gap to the first tender exercise in August and another three-week gap to the first tender exercise in October.
This is more than the usual two-week gap, and it will give motor dealers more time to secure more orders.
Mr Lim said: “Pressure will be high for COE prices to move up if current demand is sustained, not to mention if demand picks up further.”
