Changi Airport passes ‘stress test’ of transit traffic surge amid war, but near-term outlook unclear: Analysts

SINGAPORE – Changi Airport has successfully navigated the surge in transit traffic caused by the Middle East airspace closure, reaffirming Singapore’s role in global aviation. Analysts caution, however, that the conflict’s impact on the airport in the coming months remains uncertain.

Mr Mayur Patel, commercial and industry affairs leader for the Asia-Pacific region at OAG Aviation, told The Straits Times that Changi Airport has emerged as a “critical global transit hub” by filling the vacuum left by the Gulf airports, which have grounded most of their flights.

“This conflict has, in effect, stress-tested Changi’s role in global aviation and the airport has passed,” he added.

The combination of Changi’s geographic position, Singapore Airlines and Scoot’s network, and the nation’s world-class transit facilities and political neutrality has made it the “natural beneficiary” of this aviation reshuffle, he said.

The conflict appears to be a “net positive” for the airport’s passenger traffic in the short term, though Mr Patel said important uncertainties, such as the unpredictable duration of the disruption in the Middle East and the possibility of Gulf carriers rapidly reclaiming their market share, lie ahead.

Operator Changi Airport Group (CAG) told ST that 46 services – or 92 flights – were added between Singapore and European cities in March.

Independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobie said the increase in load factors on existing long-haul flights is more significant, as flights between Singapore and destinations in Europe are virtually 100 per cent full these days.

He noted that the temporary loss of around eight daily flights between Singapore and the Middle East due to the conflict is relatively small – given that these routes generate only about two million passengers, or 3 per cent of Changi Airport’s total traffic each year.

But Mr Sobie, who is from Sobie Aviation, said the outlook for Changi Airport for the second quarter of 2026 is “more mixed”, given that the increase in transit traffic on long-haul routes will continue but could be offset by a decline in passenger traffic on regional routes.

Airlines, especially low-cost carriers that tend to fly more regional routes, are cutting flights to manage soaring fuel costs.

Noting that some airlines have cut the frequency of regional flights, including those to and from Singapore, Mr Sobie said he expects to see more of these cuts taking place, and some could become permanent.

He added that Batik Air Malaysia will operate only 22 flights, instead of the original 56, between Singapore and cities in Malaysia in the week of April 6 – the most significant cut in services so far.

Philippine low-cost carrier Cebu Pacific said on March 23 that it will roll out adjustments to its network due to the impact of the war on global fuel prices, which have “more than doubled” compared with 2025 averages.

The airline will decrease the frequency of its flights between Cebu and Singapore from seven to five times each week from mid-April to the end of October. It will also suspend operations between Iloilo and Singapore from mid-June to the end of October.

Mr Sobie stressed that it is difficult to gauge for now if the decline in inbound-driven traffic from the reduction in regional routes will be higher than the gain in transit-driven traffic from long-haul routes, or vice versa.

On the immediate impact the war has on Changi Airport, Mr Patel said there has been a massive spike in ticket prices since the war broke out – a burden that has fallen directly on passengers transiting through Singapore.

He added that these fare hikes are a result of airlines taking longer routes to avoid airspace in the Middle East, which has led to more fuel consumption and directly translates into pricier flight tickets.

Fares for flights between South-east Asia, Australia and Europe in March were two to five times that of February’s, said Ms Mabel Kwan, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy.

She noted that ticket prices for flights from Singapore to London across various airlines from March 1 to March 23 are more than 2.2 times that in February, 39 per cent more for June 2026 compared with a year ago, and 13 per cent more for October 2026 compared with the same month in 2025.

Warning that higher fares are likely to stay for some time, Ms Kwan said longer flight routings, constrained capacity, and higher insurance and fuel costs will keep ticket prices high over a long period.

The increase in flights by airlines in the Asia-Pacific has not fully offset the gap left by Gulf carriers, she added, given that the Middle East was a “backbone” for global East-West connectivity.

“When that is disrupted, the ripple effects are felt worldwide.”

Ms Kwan said there are practical limits to how quickly Changi Airport can scale its capacity in the short term, in terms of infrastructure, airport slots for flights, and airline resources.

Responding, CAG said the airport’s current capacity is 90 million passengers, and it handled about 70 million in 2025.

The CAG spokesman added: “We can’t comment on the ability of airlines to launch additional services.”

In the long term, Ms Kwan said there is considerable uncertainty about the impact the war has on global aviation – especially if the current oil supply shock leads to prolonged inflationary pressures and a broader macroeconomic slowdown.

She noted that for now, travellers may choose to defer travel, head for alternative destinations or opt for stopovers closer to their departure points. If high fares persist, she said demand may change in terms of where and how people travel.

Mr Patel said the key question for CAG is whether the additional flights to and from Singapore are permanent network fixtures, even after the airspace in the Middle East normalises, or temporary accommodations.

Airlines may retain a meaningful portion of these adjustments as part of a “hybrid network strategy” because demand has shifted, passengers prefer to avoid traditional Gulf hubs, or airlines hope to diversify risks and strengthen South-east Asia connectivity, he said.

But most Singapore stopovers that have been introduced amid the war are “likely to be partially temporary”, since airlines will revert to more efficient routes due to costs and operational considerations, said Mr Patel.