S'pore could see supply disruption, may need to tap current inventories

Having Suez Canal blocked akin to big tree falling across the CTE, says Ong Ye Kung

Tugs and diggers have so far failed to dislodge the 400m-long, 224,000-ton Ever Given, one of the world's largest container ships, after it ran aground on Tuesday in the Suez Canal, seen in a satellite image taken a day later. PHOTO: REUTERS
Tugs and diggers have so far failed to dislodge the 400m-long, 224,000-ton Ever Given, one of the world's largest container ships, after it ran aground on Tuesday in the Suez Canal, seen in a satellite image taken a day later. PHOTO: REUTERS
Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung

Supplies to Singapore and the region may be temporarily disrupted, Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung said yesterday, after one of the world's largest container ships got stuck in the Suez Canal, blocking traffic in the critical waterway.

Should supplies get disrupted, some drawdown on existing inventories will become necessary, he wrote in a Facebook post.

The alternative is for ships coming from Europe and the Middle East to sail around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa to get to Asia, he added.

But this is a longer journey that will take one to two more weeks.

"If the disruption is prolonged, PSA may see schedule disruptions when shipping lines reroute their journeys. It will have to plan ahead and ensure that operations remain smooth," Mr Ong said.

PSA is a Singapore-based global port operator.

Tugs and diggers have so far failed to dislodge the 400m-long, 224,000-ton Ever Given after it ran aground on Tuesday.

The ship - which is almost as long as the Empire State Building is high - had lost the ability to steer amid high winds and a dust storm, said the Suez Canal Authority, and efforts to reopen the canal could take several days.

Comparing the Suez Canal, which provides passage for about 10 per cent of all global seaborne trade, with the Strait of Malacca and Singapore, which cater to a third of that trade, Mr Ong said the waterways are closely connected.

"To have the Suez blocked is akin to a big tree falling across the CTE (Central Expressway). Every other expressway linked to the CTE will be affected," he said. "This is another unfortunate incident that illustrates how the world is now so closely interwoven together."

Observers said the blockage will have knock-on effects on global supply chains already strained by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Singaporeans could continue to face inconveniences such as products being unavailable or longer shipping times, but consumer prices are not likely to rise much, they added.

Dr Yap Wei Yim, head of Singapore University of Social Sciences' international trade management minor programme, said there is no need for a panic run to supermarkets for items like toilet paper, as they are sourced from the region.

Singapore Shipping Association executive director Michael Phoon said businesses and consumers in Asia and the Mediterranean can expect delays on all cargo shipments coming through the Suez Canal.

He said shipping firms will need to decide whether to wait for the salvage and refloating operations at the canal to be completed, or reroute and sail around Africa.

"Whatever the decision, it will incur additional time and costs."

S&P Global Platts' head of global demand and Asia analytics, Mr Kang Wu, does not expect the blockage to last more than a few days. He said it is unlikely that freight for crude and refined oil products will be incentivised to make the long trip around Africa.

Dr Yap said the disruptions will cascade through container trading networks. The canal's traffic also includes car carriers and bulk carriers, so the blockage is expected to have an impact on other sectors.

It will also likely prolong an ongoing global shortage of shipping containers, which has been driving up shipping charges.

"Hours into the incident, we saw freight rates strengthening again," Dr Yap said.

With shipping firms increasing capacity and China racing to produce more containers, there was optimism the shortage could be resolved in the middle of the year.

But the Suez Canal blockage is now likely to aggravate existing bottlenecks and cause even more disruptions, not only for the container trade but for other commodities dependent on the busy waterway.

"Satellite pictures already show how quickly ship traffic is piling up," said Dr Yap. "Unless supply issues are sufficiently addressed, we will see the container shortage situation extending well into the second half of 2021, and even 2022."

The backlog could also create some challenges in the short term for some hub ports, Dr Yap added.

"Ships that are late and on time might come at about the same window and the ports may not have enough berths."

To mitigate the current situation, National University of Singapore Business School's Associate Professor Goh Puay Guan said shipping lines have to increase capacity where possible, and ports need to clear their throughputs and prevent bottlenecks.

Firms could also explore alternative freight options, including other sea routes, and overland transport such as rail or trucks, or purchase from other sources of supply.

Prof Goh said: "It is probably a temporary imbalance, because when demand came back (in the later part of last year), parts of the supply chain were not ready to cope. This has been exacerbated by the Suez Canal accident.

"In the short to medium term, it will be very painful as companies try to adjust. Eventually, an equilibrium will be found as the bottlenecks start to clear."

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on March 26, 2021, with the headline S'pore could see supply disruption, may need to tap current inventories. Subscribe