GE2025: Expect more multi-way fights in GRCs, say experts 

SINGAPORE – An unprecedented number of multi-cornered fights could feature in the next general election, with at least six group representation constituencies (GRCs) drawing interest from multiple opposition parties.

Checks by ST found that five GRCs might see three-cornered contests between the PAP and two opposition parties. They are Ang Mo Kio, Nee Soon, Pasir Ris-Punggol, Sembawang and Tanjong Pagar.

And one constituency – Tampines – could form the backdrop of a four-way showdown. 

With various political parties vying for ground, multi-cornered fights are now harder to avoid, analysts said.

They noted that by staking an early claim, parties could also be “posturing” or aiming to use constituencies as bargaining chips in a horse-trading exercise, which is usually carried out after electoral boundaries are firmed up.

Ten opposition parties have signalled their intent to contest the coming polls, including the three grouped under the People’s Alliance for Reform (PAR). There were 10 opposition parties in the last election too, but other than the longstanding Singapore Democratic Alliance (SDA), none of the parties had formed blocs then.

“We have far too many political parties; it’s a crowded political landscape for sure,” said Singapore Management University (SMU) law professor Eugene Tan, a former Nominated MP.

Multi-cornered fights in GRCs have historically been rare because the belief is that they tend to favour the ruling party. There have been only two such contests in the 37 years since the GRC system was introduced to ensure better minority representation.

The most recent such contest took place in Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC during the 2020 General Election, between the People’s Action Party, SDA and Peoples Voice (PV).

Before that, the only multi-way GRC battle was in the 1992 Marine Parade by-election, when the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), National Solidarity Party (NSP) and Singapore Justice Party challenged a PAP team led by then Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong.

However, such battles are not uncommon in single-member constituencies (SMCs) due to the lower barrier to entry, with just one candidate needed. Multi-way fights in SMCs have featured in every general election since 1972, except for the one in 2006.

Amassing bargaining chips

The prospect of multi-way clashes was thrown into focus over the weekend, when People’s Power Party (PPP) chief Goh Meng Seng

announced his party’s withdrawal from PAR

and staked claims in Tampines, Nee Soon and Ang Mo Kio GRCs, as well as the single-seat Yio Chu Kang. 

If there are no changes to these constituencies, it would mean the PPP – founded in 2015 – would field 16 candidates in the coming election.

Mr Goh – the only PPP candidate to contest in 2020 – told The Straits Times that he does not intend to make way for other parties, and does not expect them to do so either.

“It’s inevitable that we are moving towards this, because the space is getting more crowded relative to the participants,” he said. “Every (party) wants to grow. It’s a natural process.”

The SDA, which intends to field a team in Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC again, is similarly unfazed by the prospect of a multi-cornered fight.

Workers’ Party (WP) members have recently been spotted walking the ground in parts of Punggol town that are part of Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC.

But SDA chairman Desmond Lim said his party would not move aside as it has been engaging residents there for the past 18 years. “We are dedicated to residents here, so we are not concerned about three-cornered fights,” he said.

Multi-way fights are also becoming more likely as opposition parties seek to expand, although the parties typically firm up their plans only after the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) issues its report.

Red Dot United (RDU), founded in 2020, contested only in Jurong GRC in the last election. Since then, it has walked the ground in Nee Soon GRC, Tanjong Pagar GRC and Radin Mas SMC. The party has also been seen in Yuhua SMC.

Party leader Ravi Philemon said it will field at least 12 candidates – up from five in 2020 – and contest at least four constituencies. 

“Exactly which these will be will depend on the EBRC report, but at the moment we are most active in the areas of Jurong, Yishun and Redhill,” he added.

Mr Philemon declined to comment on multi-way fights, saying that any discussion is speculative since the EBRC report has not yet been released. “We do not want to fuel speculation by commenting prematurely on electoral contests,” he said.

But the informal coalition comprising his party, NSP, the Singapore United Party and the Singapore People’s Party (SPP) have agreed to avoid contesting in the same constituencies, he noted.

In a Feb 25 Facebook post addressing the brewing speculation around multi-way fights, Mr Philemon added that opposition parties have been “pragmatic” and that there is a “certain camaraderie” among most of them.

“Let’s also not forget – no one wants to lose their election deposit. For a five-member GRC, that’s almost $70,000 – a significant amount for any candidate or political party,” he said.

The PAR – an alliance between PV, the Reform Party (RP) and the Democratic Progressive Party – appears to have exited Pasir Ris-Punggol and Ang Mo Kio GRCs.

But it has moved to cover new territory at Tanjong Pagar GRC, where RDU is also active, as well as Marymount, Kebun Baru and Potong Pasir SMCs – all also claimed by other opposition parties.

PAR leader and PV chief Lim Tean also said on Feb 23 that his party will field “a very strong candidate” in Potong Pasir, where SPP continues to stake a claim.

Mr Lim was also seen at Jalan Besar GRC and Mountbatten SMC, where PV contested in 2020, and Radin Mas SMC, where RP contested, with his alliance partners.

The Progress Singapore Party (PSP) told ST in a statement on Feb 26 that it plans to announce the areas in which it plans to contest after a date for the election has been set.

On Feb 23, party chairman Tan Cheng Bock said on the sidelines of a walkabout that opposition parties should “seriously consider” avoiding multi-way fights.

PSP is the only party that looks set to put up fewer candidates in the coming election, potentially halving the number of seats that it contests from 24 to 12, going by the areas it now covers versus in the 2020 election.

Based on existing electoral boundaries, five parties, including WP and the SDP, look set to up the ante on the number of seats they would contest, while three parties look set to maintain their participation.

The tenth party is a newcomer, the Singapore United Party (SUP), which is staking its claim on seven seats at Ang Mo Kio GRC and Yio Chu Kang and Kebun Baru SMCs. SUP is led by former RP members, Mr Andy Zhu and Mr Darren Soh.

While multi-way contests may be increasingly unavoidable, analysts said not to put too much weight on the evolving state of play at this point in time.

With the EBRC report still in the works, Associate Professor Tan said opposition parties are working towards negotiations to decide who contests where. As such, more “over-exuberant staking of claims” is expected in the days ahead.

“This is all about staking claims and posturing to secure bargaining chips in the horse-trading that will take place,” he said.

National University of Singapore political scientist Elvin Ong said opposition parties always appeal to historical contests and vote shares to strengthen their claims for districts they want to contest. 

“We should be wary of reading too much into the noise and giving it too much weight,” he said.

Pitfall or potential?

In previous elections, opposition parties usually got together for a pow-wow in the name of opposition unity, to negotiate which parties would contest in each area, and which would withdraw.

However, those involved in previous discussions say the WP has gone into these talks mostly to reaffirm its intentions. The party has also made clear that everyone has a right to contest wherever they wish.

The PSP has stated the same in the past GE, and also said that it would inevitably have overlapping claims with other parties as a relative newcomer on the scene.

For now, opposition party leaders told ST it is too early for such talks, with some adding that no one has initiated the meeting yet.

Institute of Policy Studies senior research fellow Gillian Koh said: “In the end, it very much depends on whether the opposition parties feel they would achieve more as an informal but unified movement, or if it is each party for itself.

“(This is) especially if they feel that they are on the rise and do not wish to cede ground to the smaller parties that may not look like they will be effective.”

The PPP’s Mr Goh believes that smaller parties may have a higher chance of victory in multi-cornered fights involving many parties.

With the vote split among more parties, the winning party will need fewer votes to prevail, he said.

But IPS Social Lab adjunct principal research fellow and academic adviser Tan Ern Ser said pro-opposition voters would likely coalesce around the bigger parties.

In such situations, there is also a real chance that a smaller and weaker opposition party may lose its deposit, which could work out to about $70,000 for a five-member GRC. Candidates must win more than 12.5 per cent of votes to keep their deposit.

Critics have sometimes labelled smaller opposition players as “spoilers”, believing that they may cost more established opposition parties victory in close fights. 

Prof Tan said: “In a GRC or SMC where the contest is very keen, any dilution of the opposition votes may be costly to the leading opposition party in that particular contest.”