East side shake-up: Boundary changes make East Coast, Marine Parade election battles harder to call
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In the next general election, a quarter of East Coast GRC's voters will have come from a neighbouring constituency.
ST PHOTO: LIM YAOHUI
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SINGAPORE – East Coast GRC is still a constituency to watch.
In the next general election, a quarter of its voters – some 40,000 in Joo Chiat’s private estates and Chai Chee’s Housing Board flats – will have come from a neighbouring constituency.
This influx, a disproportionate number of whom live in private housing, will create unpredictability for East Coast ahead of the polls, said political observers.
For one thing, Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) post-election surveys show that upper middle-class, better-educated voters are more likely to believe that political pluralism and having checks and balances in Parliament are important, said IPS senior research fellow Gillian Koh.
“Those broader political and governance principles will matter far more (in East Coast GRC) than anywhere else, where the day-to-day pocketbook and economic issues will weigh more heavily,” said Dr Koh.
There is also Joo Chiat’s electoral history. Joo Chiat gave the Workers’ Party a near-win in 2011, when it was a single-seat ward.
But since being absorbed into Marine Parade GRC in 2015, a growing number of voters there have thrown their weight behind the PAP’s Mr Edwin Tong, who is Minister for Culture, Community and Youth.
Another point of uncertainty is who will be fielded in the GRC.
In 2020, East Coast’s PAP slate – comprising Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, then Senior Minister of State Maliki Osman, then newcomer Tan Kiat How and backbenchers Jessica Tan and Cheryl Chan – won 53.39 per cent of the vote.
Their opponents, the WP, were led by star candidate Nicole Seah and long-time member Terence Tan, along with Mr Abdul Shariff Aboo Kassim, Mr Kenneth Foo and Mr Dylan Ng. The party improved on its 2015 showing.
It is unclear how much of either slate will contest again this year.
With the absorption of Mr Tong’s Joo Chiat ward,
On the WP front, Ms Seah and Mr Tan are no longer with the party. Mr Abdul Shariff and Mr Foo are now walking the ground with a new face – lawyer Ang Boon Yaw.
Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, said it is unlikely that DPM Heng will move to a different constituency after just one term. He moved to East Coast GRC from Tampines GRC in 2020.
Singapore Management University law don Eugene Tan agreed. Should DPM Heng leave East Coast GRC, it would likely be to retire from politics altogether, he said.
“If he is fielded, I’d be surprised if he is moved once again to another GRC. He probably averted a PAP defeat in East Coast GRC in GE2020 with his late switch there; moving him out of the GRC would be an imprudent move,” said Associate Professor Tan.
Other political observers were mixed about the PAP’s chances at the polls, noting that the WP’s choice of candidates could swing the battle in its favour.
The WP could make a play for the constituency, added Prof Tan.
“Will the WP move Pritam Singh from Aljunied GRC to East Coast or Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRCs?” he suggested.
This could be a strategic move for the party chief and Leader of the Opposition to prove himself to the party and voters after his recently concluded court case, setting the stage for a “famous victory for the WP”, he added.
Former PAP MP Inderjit Singh concurred on the WP’s chances in East Coast.
“If WP fields their A-team there, they will give the PAP team a run for their money,” he said.
Marine Parade
In the newly renamed Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC next door ,
Their confidence stems from two things: the single-seat stronghold of MacPherson that has been added to the fold, and a heavyweight minister in Dr Tan See Leng.
But the personalities fronting the slate – on both the PAP and WP sides – will also factor heavily, they added.
Besides subsuming MacPherson, the five-member GRC will also take in an adjacent polling district from Mountbatten SMC, and parts of Potong Pasir SMC. It will cede the Chai Chee and Joo Chiat areas.
Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC will have 131,493 voters, down from 139,738 in 2020.
In the 2020 General Election, the PAP’s Ms Tin Pei Ling secured 71.74 per cent in MacPherson SMC. It was the third-best-performing SMC, and had one of the highest vote shares of any constituency.
But IPS Social Lab research fellow Teo Kay Key pointed out that MacPherson’s 27,000 voters form only a fraction of the more than 131,000 voters in Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC. Hence, the single-seat ward “cannot be the only vote bank that the PAP depends on” there, she said.
IPS’ Dr Koh and independent political observer Felix Tan both agreed that Dr Tan See Leng, who is Manpower Minister, will likely be the constituency’s anchor minister, now that Mr Tong’s Joo Chiat ward has been carved out.
Added Mr Inderjit Singh: “Dr Tan has done a great job as a minister. He is an outsider from the private sector – an entrepreneur and a CEO of a large corporation. As a minister, he has brought fresh perspectives and I think he is gaining good respect from his ground.”
Dr Mustafa said Dr Tan will want to kick off his run as anchor minister on a high note, by increasing the margin of victory in GE2025.
But this is easier said than done.
In GE2020, the PAP team won 57.74 per cent of the vote against a WP slate helmed by former Non-Constituency MP Yee Jenn Jong. This was lower than the ruling party’s national vote share of 61.24 per cent.
More recently, the WP’s star catch – senior counsel Harpreet Singh Nehal – has been spotted on walkabouts in the GRC.
Prof Tan said the constituency “is not the strong PAP bastion that it used to be”, adding that the addition of MacPherson is not insurmountable for the WP.
The GRC was a one-time stronghold for the PAP, especially under Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong when he was prime minister. ESM Goh retired from politics in 2020, and did not run in that year’s election.
Given that this is Dr Tan’s second general election, how he leads the slate, and deals with issues that the WP will raise, will be something to look out for, said Prof Tan.
Correction note: This article has been updated for accuracy.
Goh Yan Han is political correspondent at The Straits Times. She writes
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on Singapore politics and policy.Anjali Raguraman is a correspondent at The Straits Times. She covers politics, as well as consumer stories spanning tourism, retail and F&B.
