ISD report sets out external terrorism threats

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) might have lost its last territorial stronghold in March 2019, but it is still an active insurgent force in Syria and Iraq.

The Internal Security Department (ISD) said ISIS reportedly still has about 10,000 fighters in the conflict zone and tens of millions of dollars in cash reserves.

Over the past year, it has increased its activities in the conflict zone, taking advantage of the security vacuum left by reduced military operations due to Covid-19 and the scaling down of US troops in Iraq. The group has stepped up calls for its affiliates and supporters worldwide to conduct attacks.

The report added that ISIS affiliates are increasingly deadly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. South-east Asia remains part of ISIS' caliphate, with the southern Philippines and Myanmar's Rakhine state as potential areas of conflict. ISIS-affiliated group Abu Sayyaf was linked to last year's bombings on Jolo Island in south-west Philippines.

Terror group Al-Qaeda suffered a series of leadership losses last year, but it remains resilient due to a strategy of building support among local communities through its regional affiliates.

ISD said the group continues to exploit ungoverned spaces, conflict zones and security vacuums to recruit and conduct its activities.

The department said that before 2015, Al-Qaeda had reportedly directed some affiliates not to launch attacks against the West, but there may be signs it has reverted to plotting such attacks. The security vacuum from the impending withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by next month could also facilitate the resurgence of terror groups there.

Jemaah Islamiah (JI), the terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda, remains a latent terror threat in South-east Asia, and ISD warned that it is still committed to establishing an Islamic caliphate within Indonesia, and possibly the region.

Despite the arrest of around 160 members, including several senior leaders, since 2019, JI continues to recruit and operate in Indonesia through its network of schools and charitable foundations.

"JI also continues to grow its revenue streams through its legitimate businesses and by undertaking fund-raising appeals under the guise of humanitarian efforts directed towards the Covid-19 pandemic and overseas conflicts," said ISD.

JI is reported to have sent recruits to receive combat training from Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant groups in Syria, and some have since returned to Indonesia to impart their paramilitary skills to fellow JI members. The release of high-profile operatives - Malaysian Yazid Sufaat and Indonesian Abu Bakar Bashir - could rally regional JI supporters, said ISD.

Far-right extremism is an emerging threat, said ISD, which called it the fastest-growing threat in some Western countries. The movement, which espouses racial supremacy, anti-Islam and anti-immigration ideas, is diverse.

Its groups can range from neo-Nazis to anti-immigrant or Islamophobic groups to ultra-nationalists. They have reportedly become more organised and are capable of mounting attacks. Their threat of violence also comes from lone actors.

ISD noted that a growing number of far-right radicalisation cases overseas have involved youth recruited through social media and video gaming platforms. Though such extremism does not have significant traction in this region, its broader messages of ethno-religious chauvinism and anti-immigration nativism have found resonance with some hardline groups here.

"Such narratives could deepen societal fault lines and even inspire individuals to mount acts of violence against members of other communities," said ISD. It also warned such violence could provoke retaliatory attacks from Islamist terror groups, as seen in the aftermath of the Christchurch mosque shootings where Islamist groups threatened revenge attacks against Christians and Western targets.