Iran war can accentuate existing divisions, test social cohesion in S’pore: Analysts
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Smoke rising in central Tehran on March 4 after an air strike on a street.
PHOTO: EPA
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SINGAPORE - The war in Iran
Just as Singaporeans hold different views on the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars, there will be debates and differences regarding who is right and who is wrong in the current conflict, they added.
Mr Mohamed Imran Mohamed Taib, founding director of the Dialogue Centre Limited, a non-profit consultancy focused on cultural and racial diversity and inclusion, said public reactions will likely fall into three camps: Those primarily concerned with domestic economic impact like inflation who want to keep external conflicts out of Singapore; those who view the strikes unfavourably as a violation of international law; and those who support the attacks as necessary to curb Islamist terrorism and bring lasting peace to the Middle East.
While the first group will back the Government’s call for the war to end and for all parties to return to negotiations, the second and third groups might expect a stronger stance from the Government, he added.
Those who are against the US-Israel strikes
Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, warned that for this group, the war could intensify anti-American sentiments.
Meanwhile, those who believe that regime change in Iran is necessary for peace may want the Government to take the side of the US and Israel, noted Mr Imran.
Managing and balancing the three sentiments will be crucial to ensuring that the war does not cause divisiveness in society and distrust towards the Government, “a political cost that may outlive the war itself”, he added.
Dr Mustafa said Singapore, and countries in South-east Asia with sizeable Muslim populations, will have to address any domestic unrest with “a measured response that keeps their respective societies together”.
On the Government’s response, he said it has balanced “honesty with pragmatism” and has taken into consideration the country’s national interests.
Mr Imran added that the Government will have to manage ground sentiments and convince the public that Singapore’s position is in “the best interest of its citizens”.
Not a religious war
The war’s timing, during the holy month of Ramadan, has also been highlighted by several politicians in their social media posts.
Minister-in-charge of Muslim Affairs Faishal Ibrahim, on Feb 28, said in a Facebook post that the attack during Ramadan “deepens the pain felt by many across communities”, while former President Halimah Yacob, on Mar 1, said the “month of peace… has been shattered by the strike on Iran”.
Several analysts said the timing of the war could inflame sentiments and add fuel to the narrative that it is a war against Muslims.
But they also emphasised that the war is primarily about politics and not religion.
Professor Joseph Liow, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, said historical records show that conflicts that happen during the month of Ramadan have mostly been about politics and not religion.
The 1973 Arab attacks on Israel, for example, occurred during the month of Ramadan and also the holy Jewish festival of Yom Kippur.
Pakistan and Afghanistan, both Muslim countries, also attacked each other during Ramadan.
Citing these examples, Mr Bilahari Kausikan, Singapore’s former permanent secretary for foreign affairs and former chairman of the Middle East Institute, said: “It is an unfortunate fact of international relations and human nature that war has its own logic that does not necessarily align with the logic of any religion.”
Mr Imran said these historical examples should “temper sentiments” about the war in Iran and prevent people from reading too much into the fact that it started during the month of Ramadan.
Some analysts say the conflict can also accentuate existing divisions within the Muslim community itself.
Iran is a predominantly Shi’ite Muslim nation, while the majority of Muslims in South-east Asia and Singapore are Sunni.
Mr Barry Desker, distinguished fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said while Muslim-majority countries in South-east Asia initially reacted out of religious solidarity with Iran, this dynamic is complex.
“Solidarity with their Muslim brothers was the benchmark in their response,” he said, noting that this was despite the divisions between Sunni Muslims and Shi’ite adherents.
However, Iran’s retaliatory attacks on other Muslim-majority Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait have had a “chastening effect” on these responses, he added.
Mr Imran points out that minority Shi’ite Muslims in Singapore may feel targeted and experience greater anxiety, especially given their religious leanings towards Iranian clerics such as the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the US-Israel strikes
He called for more outreach and dialogues to address the fears within the minority Shi’ite community.
Security impact
He and other analysts added that the religious undertones cannot be entirely ignored, because they affect public sentiment and can be exploited.
Ambassador-at-large Chan Heng Chee said the fact that the war is happening during this period will be greatly distressing to Singapore’s Muslim population and also the 250 million Muslims living in South-east Asia.
Singapore Management University Law don Eugene Tan said some in the Muslim community may see it as “insensitive and deliberate”.
This, and the fact that the conflict could be prolonged, could increase security risks for Singapore and the region, said analysts.
A drawn-out conflict provides fertile ground for radicalisation of individual groups, said Prof Dylan Loh, Associate Professor in Public Policy and Global Affairs at Nanyang Technological University, as the warring parties seek to gain global ideological support for their cause.
Prof Tan noted that this religious dimension had been “leveraged on opportunistically” in the past, such as with the Gaza war.
There has been a spike in terror attacks around the world, such as the shootings at Sydney’s Bondi Beach
Mr Imran, citing this, said self-radicalisation driven by international conflicts and aided by the use of AI
The war in Iran can reinforce narratives that the US is anti-Muslim, which could give “oxygen to extremist groups”, he said.
This could trigger a cycle of religious extremism within some disgruntled Muslim circles and a reactionary Islamophobia and radicalisation among non-Muslims, he added.
Prof Chan noted that Singapore has stepped up security at its borders.
She added that it was also important to help Singaporeans understand the situation, such as through the social mechanisms in place at the constituency level and engagement with religious and community leaders.
The analysts said Singapore’s primary interest is in maintaining unity, amid such external conflicts.
“Singaporeans should remember that this is not our fight. You can have your own opinion about this war, but do not forget that our primary interest is to maintain ourselves as one united people, regardless of race, language or religion,” said Mr Kausikan.
