Subsidy clawbacks could hit 20% for Singapore’s tallest public housing project at Pearl’s Hill: Analysts

SINGAPORE -

Build-To-Order (BTO) flats at Pearl’s Hill

, Singapore’s tallest super high-rise public housing project at over 60 storeys, are likely to fall under the Prime category and could come with higher additional subsidies, which would translate to higher subsidy clawbacks, analysts say.

Prime and Plus flats come with stricter resale conditions such as

a 10-year minimum occupation period and subsidy clawback

, with a higher clawback rate for Prime flats.

This is to limit the “windfall effect” that allows owners of flats in attractive locations near the city centre to sell them for a substantial profit upon reaching the usual five-year minimum occupation period.

Belayar Residences on the former Keppel Club site

– the first public housing project launched within the Greater Southern Waterfront – has a subsidy clawback rate of 14 per cent, the highest to date, because of its “location and the transformative potential of the surrounding precinct”, Singapore Realtors Inc said.

As for the new Pearl’s Hill BTOs in Outram, analysts expect the subsidy clawback to be more than 14 per cent, with several expecting a rate of between 18 per cent and 20 per cent because the Government may have to provide substantially higher subsidies to keep flat prices affordable.

“As the pricing for new BTO flats takes reference from recent transactions of comparable resale flats in the vicinity, substantial subsidies will likely be required for Pearl’s Hill BTOs to ensure affordability, especially in view of the BTO income ceiling of $14,000,” Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, said.

ERA, which sees a subsidy clawback of between 18 per cent and 20 per cent for the new project, noted that four-room flat resale prices in nearby Pinnacle@Duxton averaged $1.36 million in 2025.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, Huttons Asia senior director of data analytics, sees a subsidy clawback of 20 per cent as “construction costs are likely to be much higher due to the need for deeper foundations” for super high-rise buildings.

Located near Outram Park MRT station, the first BTO project in Pearl’s Hill in more than four decades is expected to comprise 1,700 two-room flexi, three-room and four-room flats, as well as over 140 public rental flats.

Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, also expects the subsidy clawback to exceed 14 per cent.

“The subsidy will likely be determined by examining comparable resale prices in the area. Therefore, if the resale prices are higher, then the subsidy to be given will be higher, which will translate to a higher clawback rate. The costs of construction could also be a factor,” she said.

“Resale flats on upper storeys enjoy better views, therefore these flats have the potential to yield higher resale prices. If so, then the clawback rates could be higher,” she added.

Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer of Mogul.sg, sees the four-room BTOs on the higher storeys in the project selling at around $800,000.

“If the future resale prices of these flats on the higher floors exceed $1.5 million when they are resold 15 years after their launch, a subsidy clawback rate of 20 per cent is possible,” he said.

For example, if an $800,000 four-room BTO is resold at $1.6 million, the gross profit would be $800,000. A 20 per cent clawback would come to $320,000, leaving the seller with a net profit of $480,000, which is still significant, Mr Mak noted.

“If the clawback is less than 20 per cent, the net profit would be more than $500,000,” he said.

Meanwhile, a new 1,600-unit BTO project next to Caldecott MRT station in Toa Payoh West is slated to be launched in October.

Given its location, ERA’s Mr Lim expects the new Caldecott BTO flats to also fall under the Prime category, and carry a subsidy clawback rate of about 12 per cent, similar to nearby Prime projects such as Mount Pleasant Crest and Toa Payoh Ascent.

Huttons Asia’s Mr Lee believes that the Toa Payoh West project may have a subsidy clawback of about 11 per cent, and four-room flats may be priced from $590,000, about half the average resale price of over $1.1 million for similar flats in Toa Payoh Crest.

Next to the BTO project, plans are also under way for a mixed-use development with private residential units and a shopping centre similar in scale to Woodleigh Mall in Bidadari.

Ms Sun expects a mixed-use site to be launched under the Government Land Sales programme, which should attract strong interest from developers and private home buyers, given its location and limited private land supply in the area. She pointed to the large integrated mixed-use site Hougang Central, near Hougang MRT station, which snagged a top bid of $1.5 billion or $1,179 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) from a joint venture between CapitaLand and UOL Group companies in December 2025.

The bid came in above analysts’ expectations for $800 to $1,000 psf ppr for the integrated project, which will have 835 residential units and over 430,000 square feet of commercial space – nearly double the size of Hougang Mall.