Private home prices up 0.9% in Q1 on brisk sales at Pinery Residences, Rivelle Tampines

SINGAPORE - The overall private residential price index grew 0.9 per cent in the first quarter, up from a 0.6 per cent gain in the fourth quarter, but sales softened and a protracted Middle East energy crisis could turn buyers cautious, analysts said.

The updated Q1 price index was above the 0.3 per cent flash estimate by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) earlier this month, which analysts had expected as brisk sales at new launches Pinery Residences and Rivelle Tampines executive condominium (EC) were yet to be factored in at the time.

For now, home-buying appetite appears intact as mortgage rates are still at their lowest levels since 2022 and fallout from the energy crisis has yet to filter into the wider economy.

But HDB upgrader demand may slow, given a 0.1 per cent drop in first-quarter HDB resale prices – the first fall in almost seven years. In contrast, prices of non-landed suburban condos, which are typically favoured by HDB upgraders for their lower price points, jumped 2.2 per cent in the first quarter, up from 1 per cent in the previous quarter.

“A widening HDB resale-private housing price gap over time may potentially make the leap for HDB upgraders more challenging,” PropNex head of research and content Wong Siew Ying noted.

In the first quarter, 2,013 new private residential units (excluding ECs) were sold, down from 2,940 units in the previous quarter, according to data released by the URA on April 24.

This is partly because the new launch pipeline was reduced due to the Chinese New Year holidays, with developers launching 1,844 uncompleted private homes in the first quarter, compared with 2,632 units in the fourth quarter.

But Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at property firm Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, sees the housing market slowing as mortgage interest rates start to edge up and buyers turn cautious amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty.

“If the Middle East conflict is prolonged... inflationary pressures may persist and elevate interest rates, which would have an adverse impact on borrowing costs and home-buying sentiment,” she warned.

Resale transactions eased in the first quarter to 3,225 units – the lowest quarterly resale volume since 2,689 units were transacted in the first quarter of 2024 – from 3,529 units in the previous quarter. These accounted for 59.6 per cent of all sales.

Sub-sales of private homes continued to slow in the first quarter to 175, compared with 230 in the previous quarter, due to the extension in the seller’s stamp duty (SSD) holding period to four years from three years, which took effect from July 4, 2025, according to Huttons.

SSD rates now range from 16 per cent for properties sold within one year of purchase to 4 per cent in the fourth year, with no SSD payable thereafter.

ERA Singapore’s chief executive Marcus Chu said underlying demand remained firm despite the drop in sales, with new projects such as Rivelle Tampines and Coastal Cabana in Pasir Ris continuing to attract strong take-up.

“Buyers who were unable to secure their preferred options during launches in the latter half of 2025 turned to new projects in first quarter 2026,” he said.

PropNex chief executive Kelvin Fong noted that buyers generally remain selective, “gravitating towards projects near MRT stations and amenities – a ‘flight to convenience’”.

Knight Frank research head Leonard Tay said new home demand will likely continue to drive sales in the second quarter, with launches such as Vela Bay in Bayshore and Tengah Garden Residences taking the spotlight.

“The Middle East conflict does not appear to affect the buyers trawling newly opened showflats at the moment. As such, the price gap between new sale and resale transactions is expected to widen further this year,” he said.

Based on non-landed caveats, excluding those of ECs, as at April 24, the median price for new sales is $2,660 per sq ft (psf), 50.6 per cent above that of resale transactions at $1,766 psf in the first quarter, Mr Tay noted.

Meanwhile, developers’ land appetite remains healthy amid strong take-up rates at new launches and low unsold inventory, which stands at 16,219 units in the first quarter – below the 10-year annual average of 21,498 units.

Competition for private residential and EC Government Land Sales (GLS) sites has picked up, with the average number of bidders per site climbing to 4.5 in the first quarter compared with 4.2 bidders per site in the first quarter of 2025, Cushman & Wakefield research head Wong Xian Yang noted.

Land prices have also risen, with the Dover Drive GLS site selling at a new benchmark land price of $1,556 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr) in the city-fringe submarket. But higher energy prices and construction costs may prompt more cautious bids going forward, he added.

Prices of landed homes fell 0.4 per cent, compared with 3.4 per cent growth in the fourth quarter, while non-landed home prices gained 1.3 per cent, reversing a loss of 0.2 per cent in the previous quarter, driven by strong gains in prices of suburban condos.

Prices in the prime district rose 0.6 per cent in the first quarter, compared with a 3.5 per cent drop in the fourth quarter, while those in the city fringe rose by 0.8 per cent, up from 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter.

In the rental market, the overall private residential rental index rose 0.3 per cent, compared with a 0.5 per cent drop in the previous quarter, due to a tighter supply pipeline. Just 6,282 new private residential units are to be completed in 2026, significantly below the 10-year annual average of 10,837 units.