New private home sales surge in November on interest rate cuts, more new launches

SINGAPORE – Cuts in interest rates, coupled with an unprecedented six new private residential launches released in November, sent developers’ sales surging to 2,557 units, the highest monthly total since 2,793 units were sold in March 2013.

This represented a 246.5 per cent spike from October’s sales, and was 226 per cent higher than a year ago, according to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Dec 16.

Including executive condominiums (ECs), new home sales jumped 277.4 per cent to 2,891 units, from 766 units in October.

Following months of lacklustre new launch activity, 2,871 units, excluding ECs, were launched in November. This was 437 per cent more than in October, and up 196 per cent from a year ago.

In addition, 504 new EC units were put up for sale.

Home buyers returned in force as interest rates dropped in September and November.

Another projected 25 basis point cut in December could boost sales further.

Six new residential launches – Chuan Park, Emerald of Katong, Nava Grove, The Collective at One Sophia, Union Square Residences and Novo Place EC – accounted for more than 82 per cent of total new home sales in November.

Collectively, new private home sales in October and November came in at 3,295 units, outperforming the 3,049 units sold in the first nine months of 2024.

With the 6,344 new homes developers sold in the first 11 months of the year, 2024’s sales are on track to beat 2023’s, which were the lowest in 15 years at 6,421 units, excluding ECs.

In the EC segment, sales jumped to 334 units in November from a mere 28 units in October, due primarily to new launch Novo Place, which sold 289 units at a median price of $1,654 per sq ft (psf).

“The burst in home buyer activity with six new launches, and the near sell-out of Emerald of Katong, changed the mood,” said Knight Frank Singapore’s head of research Leonard Tay.

City-fringe condo Emerald of Katong was the best-selling condo in November, moving 840 of its 846 units at a median price of $2,627 psf, while another city-fringe project, Nava Grove, sold 382 units at a median price of $2,445 psf.

In the suburbs, Chuan Park was the top seller by a stretch, with 721 units transacted at a median price of $2,586 psf, due to pent-up demand from HDB upgraders and private home downgraders, and the lack of new launch supply in the area for over a decade, said Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee.

Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at property portal Mogul.sg, believes that the expected surge in fourth-quarter new home sales could trigger a 3 per cent to 4 per cent rise in the overall private residential price index for 2024.

Despite November’s robust sales performance, PropNex’s head of research and content Wong Siew Ying said “one swallow does not make a summer, and such an impressive performance may not necessarily be repeated in the near future”.

She noted that centrally located new launches with a higher entry price had more measured take-up rates in November, and December will likely not see new launches, given the seasonal year-end holiday lull.

Knight Frank’s Mr Tay also questioned whether demand will be sustained in the new year after the festive period is over.

He noted that geopolitical tensions arising from greater uncertainty in the Middle East and the current impasse in Ukraine, coupled with possibly more tariffs and protectionist policies from the US during a second Trump presidency, may affect businesses globally and, in turn, also impact trade flow and the global economy.

“Should this affect Singapore’s economy and the job market, home buying may revert to the sidelines as it did for much of 2024,” Mr Tay said.

Ms Sun cautioned that the pace of interest rate cuts may be slower in 2025 “as policy changes proposed by the incoming Trump administration, which emphasise tax reductions and broad-based tariffs, could elevate inflationary risks, potentially undermining rate-cut initiatives”.

“Collectively, these market forces should diminish the risk of the local property market overheating and mitigate the need for more cooling measures,” she added.

However, Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc, said new home sales should regain momentum in January 2025, driven by new launches such as the 777-unit The Orie in Toa Payoh, which has not seen a new launch since Gem Residences in 2016.

“The exceptional performance of Chuan Park and Emerald of Katong further underscores the appeal of large-scale projects that offer comprehensive facilities. This trend is expected to bode well for future large-scale developments,” he added.