More info needed on Omicron for any protocol review: Experts

The new coronavirus variant Omicron has put the world in a state of high alert, but two experts The Sunday Times spoke to yesterday said more information is needed before determining if current pandemic protocols should change.

For instance, it is not yet clear if current vaccines can protect a person from falling ill after being infected by the Omicron variant, said Professor Teo Yik Ying, dean of the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore.

Other things to monitor would be how fast the new variant spreads, and whether those infected would suffer a more severe form of Covid-19.

Prof Teo said: "If the variant increases transmissibility, but does not increase the risk of disease and death beyond what is already observed in the Delta variant, then the impact on the healthcare system is not that large if countries are able to ensure a high uptake of vaccination and vaccine boosters."

But he added that if there is clear evidence that Omicron increases the risk of disease and death even for the vaccinated, then countries will need to review the relevance of endemic Covid-19 strategies.

"At the moment, it is still too early to determine whether the outlook is going to be pessimistic or optimistic," he said.

Professor Hsu Li Yang, who is vice-dean of global health and programme leader of infectious diseases at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, said the worst case scenario is that the Omicron variant is more transmissible than the Delta variant, and that it can also completely evade the immune response triggered by past infection or vaccination.

If this happens, Singapore would have to abandon its approach to treating Covid-19 as an endemic disease, until new vaccines become available.

He added: "But I think this scenario is very unlikely, given that it is not a completely new virus."

The new variant was first identified in Gauteng, a province of South Africa, and the World Health Organisation (WHO) was alerted on Wednesday.

It was declared a variant of concern by WHO on Friday because of the large number of mutations detected in its spike protein, which may cause an increased risk of reinfection, among other negative effects. The spike protein is what the coronavirus uses to begin infecting human cells.

It is the fifth variant of concern that has emerged since the pandemic first gripped the world almost two years ago. The highly transmissible Delta variant was declared a variant of concern earlier this year.

To curb Omicron infections, nations around the world have moved quickly to stop global transmission of the variant, ceasing flights from many countries in the continent.

On Friday, Singapore's Ministry of Health announced that all travellers with recent travel history to seven countries in Africa, including South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe, will be barred from entering the Republic from 11.59pm yesterday.

Of the 27 countries that the Republic has quarantine-free travel schemes with, the Britain, Germany and Italy have detected the Omicron variant.

Asked if the variant could affect these vaccinated travel lanes (VTLs), Prof Teo said it depends on factors such as the virus' incubation period - which refers to the number of days between when a person is infected and when symptoms start to show - and the length of the infectious period.

"This will help to determine whether the existing testing requirements for travellers on the VTLs will result in a higher rate of leakage," he explained.

Current border protocols have kept this leakage - referring to the number of travellers infected with Covid-19 - at one infected per thousand travellers, he said.

Both experts said that country-specific border restrictions merely delay the arrival of the variant into Singapore.

Prof Hsu said: "It is highly likely that the Omicron variant is already present and circulating in other non-African countries that have direct flight connections with Africa and Singapore."

He noted that in one case of Omicron infection in Belgium, the patient had neither set foot in South Africa nor the other six countries commonly listed in the new travel bans. "Therefore, unless the situation changes, we are likely to have persons infected by this new variant on our shores within a matter of weeks," he said.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) has converted some passenger services to South Africa into cargo-only flights after the detection of new coronavirus variant Omicron triggered global concerns and bans on travellers from several African countries. These are flights between Singapore and Johannesburg and Cape Town, SIA told The Sunday Times yesterday.

Customers affected by the changes will receive a notification of their flight or booking cancellation.

Those who made bookings directly with SIA can contact the local SIA office for assistance. People are advised to contact travel agents or partner airlines if they have made bookings through them.

"We remain guided by the relevant authorities and medical experts and will work closely with them to make adjustments, where necessary, in order to ensure the health and safety of our customers," added the SIA spokesman.

On Friday, the Ministry of Health announced that all travellers with recent travel history to seven countries in Africa, including South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe, will be barred from entering or transiting through Singapore from 11.59pm yesterday.

This also applies to those who have obtained prior approval for entry into Singapore, as long as they have been in those countries in the past 14 days.

Returning Singapore citizens and permanent residents will have to serve a 10-day stay-home notice at dedicated facilities.

The Omicron variant was first detected in South Africa and appears to have been responsible for a sudden surge of Covid-19 cases there.

The World Health Organisation designated it a variant of concern on Friday, as scientists race to find out more about the mutated variant and whether current vaccines can counter it.

Correction note: This story has been edited for accuracy.