Daily deaths from Omicron lower than from Delta at peak

The number of deaths caused by the Omicron variant of Covid-19 has averaged two to three a day in the past two weeks, down from the 13 a day caused by the Delta variant at its peak, said Health Minister Ong Ye Kung in a written parliamentary reply yesterday.

The timeline to ease current Covid-19 restrictions depends on the epidemic situation, and the number of deaths is one of the key indicators to determine if Singapore's healthcare system is able to cope with the Omicron wave, he said.

Mr Ong was responding to Mr Lim Biow Chuan (Mountbatten), Mr Christopher de Souza (Holland-Bukit Timah GRC) and Mr Gerald Giam (Aljunied GRC), who asked about the target criteria for easing current Covid-19 curbs and allowing social gatherings of more than five.

"We will continue to monitor the key indicators closely to make sure our healthcare system can cope as we ride through the Omicron transmission wave. Once it has peaked and starts to subside, we can look forward to easing our safe management measures," said Mr Ong.

During the peak of the Delta wave from late October to early November last year, there were about 13 deaths a day, he said.

In the past two weeks, despite cases being three times more than during the Delta wave as the Omicron variant is more infectious, there has been an average of two to three deaths a day.

"But there had been days when deaths were also more than five. We have to watch the trend very closely, but for now, the case mortality due to the Omicron variant is not very different from the number of deaths related to various viral infections pre-Covid-19," said Mr Ong.

The number of cases in intensive care units (ICUs) is also another key indicator, and current figures show the ICU wards are not "coming under pressure and are in good shape", the minister said.

There are around 30 patients in ICUs across hospitals, compared with 170 patients at the peak of the Delta wave, he said, noting that around 0.05 per cent - or five in 10,000 - of Covid-19 cases require intensive care currently.

The duration of stay in the ICU is also shorter - typically three to five days compared with the average of 11 days for Delta patients.

There are 113 ICU beds now, which can be increased to 350 beds at short notice and to 500 beds if needed, he said.

Currently, around 130 patients require oxygen supplementation, which is around 40 per cent of the peak of the Delta wave, Mr Ong said.

The biggest constraint is the number of hospital beds, as there are around 1,200 Covid-19 patients currently hospitalised, he said.

Of these, around 30 per cent are "incidental cases", meaning they were admitted for non-Covid-19 conditions and were subsequently found to be infected as patients are tested during their stay.

"In other words, they do not take up extra beds due to their infection. So the extra workload on our hospitals is two-thirds of the 1,200 hospitalised cases," said Mr Ong.

Patients infected with Omicron also have a shorter hospital stay of about three to four days, compared with five to eight days for those infected with Delta, so beds are freed up faster, he added.

Additionally, there are about 3,800 beds in Covid-19 treatment facilities, which will be increased to 4,600 beds by the end of the month.

On top of these key indicators, it is also important to monitor healthcare manpower, noted Mr Ong.

The attrition rate of doctors at public acute hospitals has remained comparable with that in 2019 at around 3 per cent to 5 per cent, while nurses' attrition rate was about 8 per cent in 2020 and 2021, comparable with that of 2019. Absenteeism rate due to Covid-19 is around 2 per cent, he added.

"We do not take this for granted and will continue to support our healthcare professionals. We are also working closely with clusters to help them recruit new healthcare workers," said Mr Ong.