HDB resale price growth in Q3 slows; private home prices driven by new launches

SINGAPORE – Resale Housing Board flat prices saw the slowest quarterly increase in nearly five years in the third quarter of 2025, as the market continued to cool.

Prices inched up by 0.4 per cent from July to September, down from the 0.9 per cent in the second quarter and 1.6 per cent in the first quarter, based on the HDB resale price index.

HDB said on Oct 24 that this marks the fourth straight quarter of moderated growth, with the latest quarterly uptick the lowest since the second quarter of 2020.

Resale activity was up 1.7 per cent, with 7,221 transactions from July to September, compared with the 7,102 transactions in the previous quarter. However, compared with the same period in 2024, resale volumes were 11.3 per cent lower, HDB noted.

Property analysts noted the moderation in price growth came amid stronger sales volume, as demand continued to be resilient.

The slower pace of increase could be due to some buyers turning to the roughly 30,000

Build-To-Order and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) launched in 2025

. Some of these flats were in attractive locations, already completed or had shorter waiting times, they said.

Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, noted that the market has now recorded 22 consecutive quarters of growth since the second quarter of 2020 – the longest uninterrupted uptrend to date.

Resale prices have increased by 2.9 per cent year to date, which is slower than the same periods in 2023 and 2024, said Ms Sun.

Prices have surged by 54.9 per cent since early 2020, widening the gap between seller expectations and buyer affordability.

“With more sellers asking for record prices and buyers showing resistance, the rising price disparities have led to slower deal negotiations and a generally more challenging resale market,” said Ms Sun.

Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, highlighted that the third quarter saw a total of 472 million-dollar flats transacted – the highest quarterly figure to date.

“In the first nine months of 2025 alone, 1,235 million-dollar flats have been sold – already surpassing the 1,035 transactions recorded for the whole of 2024,” said Mr Lim, adding that most million-dollar flats sold were in mature estates.

The HDB rental market was broadly stable in the third quarter.

The number of approved applications to rent out HDB flats rose by 0.6 per cent to 10,123 cases in the third quarter, from 10,066 cases in the second quarter. The rental approvals were 11 per cent higher than the same period a year ago.

As at the end of September, 59,001 HDB flats were rented out, an increase of 0.5 per cent over the 58,720 units rented out in the previous quarter.

Ms Sun expects rental demand to soften in the months ahead, “as the ongoing economic uncertainties continue to weigh on business and manpower expansionary plans”.

In the private market, prices grew at a faster pace and sales volume was also up.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) property price index rose 0.9 per cent from the previous quarter, slightly lower than the 1 per cent increase recorded in the second quarter.

Prices of landed properties increased by 1.4 per cent, while those of non-landed homes rose by 0.8 per cent.

In the sub-market, non-landed prices increased across all regions – up 1.7 per cent in the core central region (CCR), 0.3 per cent in the rest of the central region, and 0.8 per cent in the outside central region (OCR).

Overall rent rose 1.2 per cent in the third quarter, compared with the 0.8 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

Sales volume rebounded strongly as developers ramped up launches to 4,191 private residential units, excluding executive condominiums. Developers sold 3,288 units from July to September, a sharp increase from the 1,212 units sold in the previous three months.

Mr Mark Yip, chief executive of Huttons Asia, said some 1,856 new units launched were located in the CCR. He also pointed out that the price gap between a new non-landed home and a resale non-landed home fell to 18.8 per cent in the third quarter, from 25.2 per cent in the second quarter.

Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc, said demand in the CCR was led by new launches such as River Green, Upperhouse at Orchard Boulevard and The Robertson Opus.

Market-wide, a steady pipeline of launches across all segments kept transactions brisk. Springleaf Residence in the OCR sold 881 units at a median price of $2,166 per sq ft, while Promenade Peak sold 337 units at a median price of $2,922 per sq ft.

URA also recorded 3,881 private resale transactions and 235 sub-sale transactions from July to September.

Resale transactions accounted for 52.4 per cent of all transactions in the third quarter, compared with 71.1 per cent in the previous quarter, it said.

PropNex chief executive Kelvin Fong said despite the stronger sales, the private housing market is on a moderate and sustainable price growth path in the third quarter, supported by healthy demand, an influx of new launches, easing of interest rates and a growing economy. He noted that the number of unsold uncompleted private homes fell 7.9 per cent quarter on quarter to 17,029 units, the lowest in seven quarters.

Mr Fong believes the present level of unsold inventory remains manageable and could potentially be absorbed by the market in around two years, based on a 10-year annual average of developers’ sales.

He added that “sensitive pricing and a focus on keeping price quantum affordable continue to be a driving force of demand”.

Private housing supply is being ramped up through the Government Land Sales programme, with 9,755 units on the confirmed list, about 50 per cent above the 2021 to 2023 annual average.

Meanwhile, HDB

will launch about 4,600 flats

in Bukit Merah, Sembawang, Tampines and Toa Payoh in February, alongside SBF of about 3,000 units.