Commentary
Handshakes aplenty but no-shows at Shangri-La Dialogue a missed opportunity
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US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin (centre) attending the keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, on May 31.
ST PHOTO: SHINTARO TAY
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SINGAPORE - The idea of Shangri-La may conjure images of a harmonious, earthly paradise.
Yet, vital elements were missing from a panel discussion on the prospects of peace in Myanmar, on the first day of this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue.
The various political and military factions in the strife-ridden South-east Asian nation were no-shows. Also absent was China, a key power player with strategic energy interests in Myanmar, whose ruling junta it has sold weapons to while also supporting the resistance.
Evidently, even at the premier defence forum in the Asia-Pacific, there are a few gaps – for whatever reasons – in the various conversations about the different security and strategic issues simmering in the world today.
After all, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas recently warned that it is dangerous to dismiss the various conflicts as unrelated just because they are geographically distant, pointing to the seemingly isolated incidents that led to World War II.
To be sure, there were some breakthroughs on Day One. US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin finally met his Chinese counterpart
The opportunity to engage so many military and diplomatic counterparts is not taken lightly by many, as the giant contingents from China and the US bear testament.
“While it’s a long way to come to Singapore, the access to each other as chiefs of navy, heads of defence… you can, in a day and a half, have enough engagements that will take you a year or more, if you were to try to go to each of those countries,” Admiral Linda L. Fagan, commandant of the US Coast Guard, told a media roundtable on May 31.
“The intent is to continue to build on relationships and partnerships that we already have,” she added.
But amid the flurry of bilateral meetings, media briefings and public forums on Day One, other absentees include India, Israel and Russia – key players in ongoing conflicts around the world.
While Israel has not been a regular participant in the Shangri-La Dialogue, its presence this year would have presented an opportunity to surface the ongoing war in Gaza.
Russia’s continued absence since its invasion of Ukraine reportedly appearing in person at the dialogue a peace summit in Switzerland.
With India’s emergence as an important US ally in its Indo-Pacific strategy, New Delhi’s absence will deprive the forum of an important perspective. In previous years, India was represented by a handful of generals, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered the keynote in 2018.
This year, a special session focusing on security in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific to be convened on June 2 is not scheduled to contain any representation from India.
To be fair, Mr Modi and his Cabinet are busy with the closing stages of India’s multi-stage national elections.
The absence of these nations, though, could also reflect their choice of multilateral forums where they perceive their interests will be viewed favourably.
But any greater understanding of difficult positions will be more difficult if key players are not present in these forums.
Perhaps, the respectful jousting between the Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command and a veteran Chinese diplomat on another panel is the best demonstration of the kind of in-person dialogue and engagement – imperfect as it may be – that leads to de-escalation.
After rebutting Mr Cui Tiankai’s repartee that seemed to insinuate that China is the only party interested in peace, Admiral Samuel Paparo reached out to him for a handshake, and they exchanged wry smiles.
“Well, at least we got the dialogue started,” quipped International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia executive director Veerle Nouwens, who was the panel’s moderator.
