S-E Asia should brace itself for haze later this year as ‘Godzilla El Nino’ forecast: Grace Fu

SINGAPORE – The projected hotter and drier conditions later in 2026 could trigger more intense forest fires and haze in South-east Asia fuelled by a potential “Godzilla El Nino cycle”, said Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu on May 7.

“South-east Asia faces a perfect storm caused by a double whammy of geopolitical developments and climate change, which have severe implications for the region’s agri-commodity sector,” said Ms Fu at the annual Singapore Dialogue on Sustainable World Resources held at One Farrer Hotel.

She added: “A warmer-than-usual dry season is also expected in the coming months, with some meteorological agencies forecasting a super El Nino, or a ‘Godzilla El Nino’ cycle. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that this will amplify the impacts of climate change, including potential droughts in South-east Asia.”

Ms Fu urged ASEAN nations to be more vigilant in 2026 and pursue closer regional cooperation through the legally binding ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, and a high-level ministerial committee that coordinates efforts to monitor and manage land and forest fires.

The minister’s cautionary message comes after Singapore faced several weeks of hazy conditions earlier in 2026 due to hot spots and vegetation fires in Johor. While the 24-hour Pollutant Standards Index readings were within the moderate range, a burning odour reached many parts of the island during that period.

Bloomberg reported in end-March that the 800-plus hot spots across Indonesia and Malaysia were the highest in seven years.

The WMO recently said the sizzling El Nino climate phenomenon could return between May and July. El Nino leads to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.

Early signs indicate that the climate event could be particularly strong, which could worsen the hotter and drier weather that it usually brings to South-east Asia, raising the risk of wildfires.

According to the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre, more hot spot activity can be expected as the traditional dry season sets in around June in the southern ASEAN region, where Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia sit.

The centre’s website stated: “There is a risk of transboundary smoke haze occurrence over areas experiencing prolonged dry conditions during June and July as the prevailing winds blow from the south-east or south-west. The situation could intensify if El Nino develops.”

The dialogue on May 7 focuses on agricultural commodities in ASEAN, which are being affected by higher energy costs, agricultural input prices and shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict.

Organised by the think-tank Singapore Institute of International Affairs, it was also attended by Indonesia’s Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Arif Havas Oegroseno.

As South-east Asia braces itself for volatile times, the conflict underscores how sustainability enables long-term resilience and growth, said Ms Fu. She outlined how the region can harness sustainable practices to safeguard its commodities sector.

Amid an energy and fertiliser crisis sparked by the Iran war, the region can look into producing organic fertiliser and biogas from palm oil waste and wastewater to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel markets, Ms Fu suggested.

Noting that agricultural products made up nearly 10 per cent of ASEAN’s total exports to the European Union in 2024, she added that compliant, sustainable practices can enhance the reputation and long-term market advantage of ASEAN products.

The EU, for example, will be imposing an anti-deforestation law at the end of 2026 that will require companies selling agricultural goods to the EU to prove their products did not destroy forests or degrade land.

“Sustainable production is not only about regulatory compliance, but also about access to markets and capital for investment and innovation,” Ms Fu said.

She said the geopolitical backdrop has created new risks that should be monitored and managed. One of them, she added, is green protectionism, where trade barriers that come with sustainability standards could “stifle trade, leaving growers, exporters and importers worse off”.

And as South-east Asia pursues alternative energy supplies like biofuels – derived from crops or agricultural waste – there is a need to manage the increased risk of deforestation, Ms Fu warned.

Nearly a fifth of Indonesia’s deforestation in 2025 was due to the clearing of land for food and bioenergy crops under a government programme aimed at boosting food and energy self-sufficiency, according to think-tank Auriga Nusantara.

In 2024, Singapore commissioned a study on how climate change will affect South-east Asia and its agricultural sector. The study will be completed later this year and shared with ASEAN, said Ms Fu.

She added: “Some of the challenges we face in the months ahead and foreseeable in the years to come will feed into Singapore’s ASEAN chairmanship next year.”

The Republic takes over from the Philippines as ASEAN Chair in 2027.