Will the US dollar tank in 2024? Don’t bet on it just yet

The biggest question confronting currency traders at the start of 2024 is whether the US dollar – the world’s most important currency – is headed for a bear market, a sustained move downwards.

The consequences would be huge. A weaker US dollar would be a shot in the arm for emerging economies – especially those with high US dollar-denominated debts. It would imply a rise in the value of long-suffering currencies –

especially the Japanese yen,

which has not benefited from interest rate hikes, unlike the euro or the pound sterling.