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Why we now face a higher risk of a South China Sea clash

The chances of a US-China war starting around Second Thomas Shoal are now perhaps as high as the chances of one starting in the Taiwan Strait.

The chances of a US-China war starting around Second Thomas Shoal is now perhaps as high as the chances of one starting in the Taiwan Strait.

In recent months, in response to escalating Chinese actions, the US and its allies have been drawn deeper and deeper into the contest in support of the Philippines

PHOTO: REUTERS

Hugh White

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President Ferdinand Marcos Jr of the Philippines set the tone for a tense weekend in

the opening session of this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue on May 31.

His prepared keynote speech began with a bold declaration of his country’s determination to defend its claims in the South China Sea against Chinese pressure. Then, in answering a blunt question from the audience, he did not shy away from what that might mean.

He was asked about a scenario in which Chinese Coast Guard water cannon killed a Filipino sailor in a South China Sea clash, and “would that cross a red line” leading Manila to invoke its mutual defence treaty with Washington and – by clear implication – lead to war. His response was blunt. “Once we get to that point,” he replied, “certainly we would have crossed the Rubicon… Almost certainly it’s going to be a red line.”

Why we now face a higher risk of a South China Sea clash

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