Why Trump keeps talking about running again for US president in 2028

In recent hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee, four of US President Donald Trump’s nominees for a lifelong appointment to a federal court were asked a remarkably simple question: Is Mr Trump eligible to run for US president again in 2028?

None gave a clear no. One nominee, Mr John Marck, even said that he “would have to review the actual wording of (the US Constitution)”. But the 22nd amendment of the US Constitution is not complicated. “No person,” it states plainly, “shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” Mr Chris Coons, the Democratic Senator who asked the question of each of the nominees, expressed exasperation that none of his colleagues seemed to notice or care.

The episode seemed like a repeat of the confirmation hearings for Mr Trump’s conservative judicial picks before the overturning of Roe v Wade, the US Supreme Court’s ruling recognising a woman’s constitutional right to choice. Many declined to directly signal how they might approach abortion, and gave hedged answers, describing Roe v Wade as a settled precedent. But once on the bench, several judges became central to dismantling those protections.

These parallels are chilling, because they illustrate how longstanding legal protections can be softened politically and eventually removed. They also suggest that a third Trump term may be a broader and more ominous call to reshape the American legal landscape. These four nominees will soon take their seats on the federal bench and hold responsibility for determining the bounds of the President’s power. 

Softening ground

Mr Trump and his allies have spent months renegotiating those boundaries. Former adviser Steve Bannon has repeatedly suggested on podcasts and cable television networks that Mr Trump would continue as president after this term, a reality that Mr Bannon said people need to “get accommodated” with. 

Mr Trump himself told a crowd recently that he would leave office “eight or nine years” from now. He told an interviewer he was “not joking” about running again. His campaign has even sold Trump 2028 merchandise. And the MAGA movement has taken the cue and flooded the online world with posts about the US President, encouraging him to run again.

Taken individually, such comments can be dismissed as provocation, trolling or political theatre. But Mr Trump has long used repetition and ambiguity to expand the realm of what his supporters consider politically acceptable. He had floated ideas of mass deportations, sweeping tariffs and the rollback of abortion rights long before they became policy priorities. Critics had wrongly treated those statements as rhetorical exercises, instead of serious moves he had full intention of carrying out once he assumed office.

Many still do not fully grasp the same playbook he uses every time he seeks an expansion of power: Introduce an extreme idea to a friendly audience, gauge the reaction, retreat temporarily if necessary and press forward if resistance proves manageable.

An instrument of control

All this does not mean a third Trump term is legally plausible in any straightforward sense. The US Constitution presents formidable barriers. The 22nd amendment prohibits anyone from being elected president more than twice. Some Trump allies have floated a workaround to have him run as vice-president, before resuming power when a loyal president resigned. But the 12th amendment bars anyone ineligible for the presidency from serving as vice-president. 

Nor would any such effort unfold in a vacuum. State election officials, Congress, the courts and ultimately, the electorate would become decisive actors (Mr Trump’s recent approval ratings have nosedived). Many Republicans would likely resist an overt attempt to bypass constitutional term limits. But that might not be the point.

Keeping the possibility vaguely alive serves an immediate political purpose for Mr Trump. It freezes the Republican succession race before it can begin. Any ambitious Republican positioning for 2028 risks appearing disloyal to a president who continues to dominate the party and refuses to behave like a political figure approaching retirement. In that sense, the mere suggestion of a third term functions as an instrument of control. 

Read in this context, the concern over the Senate hearings of Mr Trump’s judicial nominees is not simply whether judges would literally permit a third term but whether political and legal institutions are becoming increasingly reluctant to draw firm constitutional lines around presidential power when Mr Trump is involved. They signal that Mr Trump has successfully extended his reach even over the judicial arm of the US government, and will undoubtedly be able to continue exercising influence over other organs of state, long after he leaves office.

Mr Trump has repeatedly tested those limits and often discovered that institutions bend more readily than his critics initially expect. A Republican-controlled Congress has rarely challenged him directly. Speaker Mike Johnson, for instance, altered procedural rules to block a vote that could have overturned the Trump administration’s tariffs. 

A conservative judiciary, reshaped significantly during his first term, has at times adopted expansive views of presidential authority. A 2024 landmark decision by the Supreme Court ruled that the US president has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within their authority and at least presumptive immunity for all official acts. 

Growing risks

The political risk for Republicans may lie elsewhere. Mr Trump continues to command intense loyalty among his MAGA base, but only 38 per cent of all Americans approve of the President and seven in 10 say they expect a recession in 2027.

The Republicans might find themselves in a bind if they are unable to carve out a post-Trump identity for themselves or rally around a successor ahead of the 2028 presidential race. The electorate may send them an early signal in the November midterm elections, where Americans will vote for House representatives and a third of Senate seats.

The greatest danger to America, however, may not be that Mr Trump successfully secures a third term. It is that repeated public speculation about one erodes the idea that constitutional restraints are fixed and inviolable. US democracy has long depended not only on laws, but on political actors accepting that certain boundaries should not be crossed. 

But it looks like Mr Trump has successfully changed that.