Why the US and Iran are readying for a historic showdown

As a massive American armada heads towards Iran, both Trump and Khamenei are gambling on conflict to achieve their aims.

As confrontation looms with Iran, the US is building up its forces in the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and its carrier strike group (above).

PHOTO: REUTERS

Jonathan Eyal

Will he, or won’t he? Since early January, we have been treated to daily speculation about the prospect of new US military attacks on Iran. As things currently stand,

Iranian and US envoys are continuing to negotiate

and claim to remain optimistic about a potential deal to avert a war. However, the most predictable indicator of the situation is not what diplomats say but the nature of the build-up of US military equipment in the Middle East.

Over the past few days, one of the biggest number of US bombers, fighter jets, transport planes and mid-air refuelling tankers in modern history

made its way towards Iran

; as a military planner in Britain – one of the key staging posts – put it, “essentially anything that can fly and refuel other aircraft has flown towards the Middle East”. Up to one quarter of the total US fleet of airborne early warning and control system aircraft has now moved to the region.

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