The Russian invasion of Ukraine is illegal and has to be condemned by the international community. And it has been condemned. As a former ambassador to the United Nations, I fully understand and support the need to protect the principles of the United Nations Charter.

Yet, in geopolitics we must always do two things simultaneously. We must moralise. And we must analyse. Since geopolitics is a cruel game and follows the cold and ruthless logic of power, we must be cold, dispassionate and hard-headed in our analysis. The only iron law of geopolitics is that it punishes those who are naive and ignore its cold logic.