Uncertainty continues after US midterm polls

Deeper engagement in the Pacific

Ted Gover
The Statesman, India

While the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong performance in the Nov 8 midterm elections allowed them to retain control of the US Senate, the Republican party eked out a slim majority in the US House of Representatives, returning Washington to its usual make-up – a divided government.

These developments have taken place as the world faces additional tensions with a progressively belligerent North Korea and as China’s President Xi Jinping consolidates power.

So what does the new divided US government and Republican control of the House of Representatives mean for America’s relations with South Korea?

Simply put, both Congressional Republicans and Democrats are pivoting to the Indo-Pacific to counter Pyongyang and Beijing, and they are looking to partner Seoul, Tokyo and other like-minded partners with these endeavours.

Like their Democratic counterparts, Congressional Republicans are committed to America’s responsibilities under the US-Republic of Korea mutual defence treaty, and the US-Japan Security Alliance, and towards helping Taiwan defend itself.

Congressional Republicans and Democrats also recognise that threats to Taiwan’s security endanger South Korea and Japan, and that America’s credibility will be ruined if it fails to support Taiwan in its time of need. The same is true regarding the Korean peninsula.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s dozens of missile tests this year – a record high – have heightened pressures, as have his threats to use nuclear weapons against South Korea. Worsening matters, analysts believe that Mr Kim may be planning North Korea’s seventh nuclear test.

Mr Kim’s and Mr Xi’s deepening relations with Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s Feb 24 invasion of Ukraine is another complicating factor.

The GOP will advocate for increased defence spending, just as their Japanese counterparts have been calling for in recent months.

Specifically, House Republicans are expected to support investments in building US capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, namely, hypersonic weapons, missile defence, resupplying munitions stockpiles, enlarging the US Navy as well as expanding shipbuilding and ship repair capacity.

Additionally, House Republicans will support continued US-South Korea joint military exercises.

Elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, the growing US-China rivalry will ensure House Republican advocacy for a larger US military presence in the region and continued involvement with informal groupings such as the Quad, Aukus, and Partners in the Blue Pacific.

Divided Congress makes China a bargaining chip

Shi Peipei
China Daily, China

It was not the expected red wave for the Republicans, but enough to reorder the balance of power in Congress and frustrate President Joe Biden’s agenda. In the Senate, Democrats maintained control of the chamber.

There are two other key factors for the Democratic Party’s better-than-expected performance: former president Donald Trump’s high-profile participation and the Supreme Court’s repeal of abortion rights.

Mr Trump’s high-profile support of various candidates became a destructive force for the Republican Party in this election. The candidates endorsed by him in key states lost their match-ups, with his handpicked Republican Senate candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada all losing.

The other important factor was the impact of the Supreme Court repealing abortion rights. In June, the US Supreme Court overturned the Roe v Wade decision, removing the nearly 50-year-old constitutional guarantee of abortion rights and giving states the power to significantly restrict or ban abortion. The conservative justices’ decision fundamentally reshaped US society by overturning the landmark 1973 precedent, which sparked a political firestorm in society.

The Democrats seized on protecting abortion rights as a key issue in the midterm elections, and the Democratic messaging on abortion rights helped the party win in key states.

In other words, the Democrats’ success in the midterm elections was not driven by enthusiasm for Mr Biden or the Democratic Party, but by the widespread rejection of Trumpism and the far right.

With the Republican takeover of the House, the political dynamics in the next two years will be very different as the political turmoil is deepening and bipartisan trust is at its lowest level in decades.

The Republicans leading the House will certainly launch investigations into Mr Biden’s administration; even a politically motivated impeachment is possible. However, Democratic control of the Senate ensures that whatever agenda the Republicans push through is likely to be dead on arrival in the upper chamber.

But even if the domestic agenda is blocked in the bitter partisan battle, the current US policy towards China will not change, with the Republicans in charge of the House taking a tougher stance towards China.

Republican lawmakers will pressure the Biden administration on a number of China-related issues, including the traceability and accountability of the Covid-19 pandemic, increasing the defence budget, intellectual property theft, and the Taiwan question.

Although the Democrats still hold the majority of seats in the Senate, they may push a tougher policy due to their fear of appearing weak compared with the Republicans on China-related issues, thus forming a unified and tougher position of both parties on China.

Mr Kevin McCarthy, who was nominated to serve as House Speaker, is a staunchly hawkish anti-China leader within the Republican Party.

Mr Mike McCaul, the likely chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said if Republicans take back the House, he will make it a priority to restrict technology exports to China.

The continued bipartisan shift towards a confrontational stance on China may result in more confrontation between the two countries, which should be avoided.

So the agreement reached between the presidents of the two countries on restarting bilateral talks as part of the international climate negotiations during their face-to-face meeting in Indonesia on Nov 14 is worth rejoicing.

This breakthrough in the effort to avert catastrophic global warming has raised hopes for the resumption of a formal dialogue between the two countries. Now let’s see what happens.

Let’s wait and see

Kim Seong-kon
The Korea Herald, South Korea

Experts say that the outcome of the elections is an indictment of the Republican Party, considering that the Biden administration suffered from many disadvantages, such as the President’s low approval rate, high inflation, and a rise in illegal immigration.

Obviously, some voters who did not support the Democratic Party could not turn to the Republican Party, which many found disappointing.

Experts also pointed out that the outcome of the midterm polls gave Republicans the opportunity to reflect on the situation of the Republican Party which is still dominated by Mr Donald Trump.

Mr Trump handpicked or endorsed a number of candidates who did not survive the midterm elections. Thus, it would seem his approval does not carry the credibility it was previously thought it had.

On the other hand, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now seems clearly on the rise as a potential presidential candidate for the Republican Party in 2024. But nothing is certain now. Mr Trump seems set to run for the presidency again.

The Korean people are now closely observing the American midterms because the results will surely affect South Korea-US relations. For example, if Mr Trump had been empowered and triumphant in the midterms, he could have marched into the White House again. Then, South Korea should prepare for the withdrawal of the US Army from the Korean peninsula because he said he would do it when re-elected.

For South Korea, things luckily might turn out a little differently.

Currently, nothing is for sure now. Thus, we should wait and see, while preparing for all the possibilities. Meanwhile, it is a relief that the Biden administration will be able to keep propelling its policies with the Senate’s support. South Korea-US relations will be intact and continue harmoniously in the meantime.

What voters want

Richard Heydarian
Philippine Daily Inquirer, The Philippines

To begin with, this midterm election was unique on three levels. The race was not only a referendum on Mr Joe Biden, but also on former president Donald Trump, who proactively backed a coterie of notorious election deniers in key races.

Moreover, in the wake of the Roe v Wade Supreme Court decision, which cemented the conservative bent of the country’s highest court, many swing voters, especially suburban women, seemed less excited with a conservative-dominated legislature.

And lastly, the generally progressive Gen Z voters heavily rallied behind the Democrats to, inter alia, stem the tide of Republican Kulturkampf.

With Democrats largely expected to hold onto the Senate, and narrowly conceding Congress, the incumbent was particularly cheerful following the midterm elections.

So, what are the lessons for besieged democracies such as the Philippines? First of all, the latest US elections, as with the preceding one in Brazil, clearly demonstrate the limits and vulnerabilities of authoritarian populism.

Mr Trump hoped to leverage a prospective “red wave” as a launching pad for his presidential bid in 2024. Instead, he is now being blamed by both Republican rivals and leadership as the main cause behind the party’s shocking underperformance.

As Mr Scott Jennings, a former top aide to Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, bluntly put it: “How could you look at these results tonight and conclude Trump has any chance of winning a national election in 2024?”

This is music to the ears of Governor Ron DeSantis, who is, so far, Mr Trump’s main Republican rival.

Moreover, the midterm elections also showed that voters are not only driven by purely economic or cultural issues alone, but by a combination of the two. Thus, successful candidates were those who took on both themes effectively.

And this brings me to arguably the biggest universal takeaway from the elections, namely the historic victory of Democratic candidate John Fetterman as Pennsylvania’s new Senator-elect, the first since 1962.

He not only overcame tough competition from a celebrity-millionaire Republican, but also survived a stroke earlier this year.

Mr Fetterman belongs to a class of statesmen who can be best described as “the synthesiser”, combining both charisma and conviction.

At once, the Harvard-educated candidate advocated for progressive policies, including universal healthcare, increased minimum wages, and the abolition of capital punishment, while seamlessly standing out as a folksy, relatable and compassionate leader, to whom even conservative voters could relate. By all indications, the synthesisers may be the best hope for the future of democracy.