The war in Ukraine, now in its 11 month, has settled into a routine. It is no longer a top item in news bulletins or on the front pages of newspapers. Largely gone, too, are the anguished debates about who should be held responsible for the fighting or what must be done to stop it.

But this air of complacency is misleading. In many Western capitals – particularly in Washington – a consensus is emerging that this is just a lull before the storm, and that the next few months will see a sudden intensification in both the fighting on the ground and in the broader political confrontation between the West and Russia.