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Trump’s ‘shock and war’ makes this economic crisis different
Since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, economies and financial markets have been adrift in a storm.
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A world of more expensive and uncertain energy arising from the Iran war will make it harder for the tech sector to ride to the rescue as it did in 2025, says the writer.
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Andy Haldane
The economic epicentre of this conflict has been energy. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has deprived the world of a fifth of its oil supply, approaching 20 million barrels a day. This makes it the largest-ever shock to the global oil market and has caused wild intraday swings in oil prices and large-scale releases of strategic oil reserves, neither of which has historical precedent.
Seeking ways to understand the implications of the current conflict, analysts have been trawling past oil and geopolitical crises for inspiration and scenario planning. But perhaps there is a more recent example that offers both lessons and, on the face of it, some degree of reassurance about how economies and financial markets might respond.
