Trump may be right about Ukraine’s endgame

It is a millennia-old cliche of soldiering that you spend the majority of your time waiting around, interrupted by brief spasms of action. The same can be true of diplomacy. For a year now, all parties to the war in Ukraine have been awaiting the results of the US election.

Donald Trump’s commanding victory

has ended that limbo – and supercharged thinking about an endgame in Ukraine.

Trump has long insisted that ending the war is a priority. For all the understandable questions about the path to a deal, America’s allies are assuming this is a promise he wants to keep. In Brussels there is a growing expectation that there will be a ceasefire, if not some form of a settlement, in 2025. The challenge for Europe’s powers is how to guide the process to an acceptable end. America’s military pre-eminence gives Trump the dominant say in directing the process, but they do have leverage. They just have to use it.