that Israel and Iran have spent decades planning for has come, and it is spectacular and terrifying. Israeli officials say they need at least two weeks to degrade Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. That means the struggle ahead is a test of staying power for both countries. Yet even then, Israel may need America to deliver a knockout blow to Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites. For Israel, the coming days are all about momentum: If it maintains an aura of success, it may be able to draw in President Donald Trump. But if the pace of damage to nuclear sites slows and casualties spiral, he may push to end the war before Israel has achieved its aims. A hasty ceasefire could leave Iran with a huge incentive to rush to restore its nuclear programme.
Iran has responded with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones, although only a handful have penetrated Israel’s defence systems. Israel’s official objective is “removing an existential threat” from Iran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missiles. It has prioritised striking Iranian headquarters, the homes of generals and missile launchers, and achieving air dominance over Iran. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) chief of staff Eyal Zamir has said the “road to Tehran has been opened”.
