The global economy is resilient but limping

The last four years have brought three huge shocks: Covid-19; post-Covid-19 supply disruption; and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent surges in commodity prices. Is this series of vast shocks now over? The

deadly assault on Israel and conflict in Gaza

suggests that the answer may be “no”. Recent turmoil in bond markets is another mark of persistent lack of predictability.

Thus, the carefully prepared analysis of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF)

latest World Economic Outlook (WEO)

may already be a bit out of date. Nevertheless, it is, as always, very helpful. What it tells us is both encouraging and disturbing. The world economy has proved resilient, but performance has deteriorated in the longer term, combined with a divergence in the performance of rich and poorer countries relative to expectations.