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The dangerous triumph of neo-mercantilism
Liberal trade policies are giving way to frictions that could lead to outright conflict.
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Containers at Longtan port in Nanjing in January offer a snapshot of the volume of Chinese exports that resulted in more than $1.28 trillion in trade surplus in 2025.
PHOTO : AFP
Martin Wolf
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In the first 11 months of 2025, China ran a Customs trade surplus of more than US$1 trillion (S$1.28 trillion). According to Dr Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, in 2025 as a whole, its “overall goods surplus... should – if accurately measured – approach an astonishing US$1.2 trillion (6 per cent of China’s gross domestic product, well over a percentage point of the GDP of all of China’s trading partners)”.
Over much the same period, US President Donald Trump, obsessed with US trade deficits
