Russia's war spawns key learning points

As Russia's invasion enters its second month, the death and destruction in Ukrainian cities continue unabated. The catastrophe that is unfolding will likely be remembered for generations in both countries. But the war, and the economic sanctions on Russia that have followed, could also have a lasting impact on the global economy and geopolitics. One of the immediate effects has been the turmoil in commodity markets. Russia is a major exporter of crude oil and gas, as well as several base metals. Between them, Russia and Ukraine account for about 30 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, of global exports of wheat and corn. They are also major exporters of fertilisers. As a result of sanctions on Russia, self-sanctions by companies and blockages of transit routes, significant amounts of these commodities have effectively been taken off the markets.

The upshot is soaring prices for hydrocarbons, metals and staple grains. This is not only pushing up inflation everywhere, but also re-disrupting supply chains for products ranging from cars to semiconductors and the food industry. This will only reinforce the pressure on companies to further diversify their supply chains and add to costs. Food price inflation threatens to devastate several Middle Eastern and African economies that rely on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine, creating the conditions for a rerun of the social and political unrest that happened in 2008, when food prices hit record levels.