No quick fixes to end Ukraine war

As Ukraine proceeds with its counter-offensive against Russia’s invasion, with both aggressor and victim taking untold casualties, it has for the first time threatened the oil export infrastructure that is so critical to Moscow’s finances. Drones have damaged a Russian naval vessel outside the oil-exporting port of Novorossiysk. Russia, meanwhile, has imposed a de facto blockade on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and repeatedly struck Ukraine’s grain export infrastructure, critical to the Ukrainian economy. Separately, Moscow’s central business district has been hit by Ukraine. In essence, each is going for the other’s economic jugular.

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. While it failed to take Kyiv, it did seize swathes of territory that Ukrainian troops, helped by Western arms aid totalling some US$170 billion (S$228 billion), are fighting to recapture. As the war develops new dimensions, countries in Africa and West Asia are getting fearful of food shortages, more so since India, a big rice exporter, has suspended shipments of non-basmati rice to keep a lid on home prices. India and other Asian refiners who imported Russian crude, some of which refine oil for re-export to Europe, are also mulling over their options.