Asean, the indispensable grouping

The

42nd Asean Summit, held in Indonesia last week,

provided an opportunity for the grouping to reaffirm its relevance in a troubled world. Asean’s capacity for survival has been vindicated by the way in which its members cooperated during the coronavirus pandemic. However, the existential threat of Covid-19 was so immediate that countries were compelled to cooperate out of biological necessity and not political choice. The challenge for Asean now lies in the danger that the threat perceptions of its members might diverge over the bipolar divisiveness being introduced by the rivalry between the United States and China (compounded by hostile relations between the US and Russia).

Precisely because centrifugal forces are becoming more powerful in global affairs, it is imperative for Asean to restate its centrality so that it continues to shape key outcomes that affect South-east Asia. The alternative is to let those outcomes be determined by fluctuations in great-power relations. That scenario would reflect a return to the days of the Cold War before Asean was set up expressly to ensure its members’ “stability and security from external interference”, in the words of the founding Bangkok Declaration of 1967.