A dangerous phase in Europe’s war

Approaching the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is clear that, far from hostilities easing, an escalation of conflict is more likely. The United States’ decision to send over 31 Abrams battle tanks – the number in a typical Ukrainian armoured squadron – brings a dangerous new edge to the conflict. Washington has bowed to pressure from Germany, which had hesitated to lend Ukraine 14 Leopard tanks until the US itself did so. The issue has been resolved and Kyiv should be pleased.

While the Abrams will take months to arrive, the Leopards should be in place before an anticipated Russian offensive in the spring. France has already indicated it will supply Ukraine light tanks that, conceivably, could take the fight into Russian territory. Germany’s decision paves the way for Spain, Poland and Finland to do likewise, possibly so will Norway. After this, it could be front-line aircraft. Lockheed Martin is reportedly stepping up production of F-16 aircraft in anticipation of demand by countries that may hand warplanes to Ukraine, and need to restock.