Rising Taiwan risks cloud improved US-China ties

You could be forgiven for spotting signs of recent hopeful improvements in ties between China and the United States. Back in June, US Secretary of State

Antony Blinken visited Beijing.

A limited but perceptible reset followed. There have been further high-level visits, not least from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are likely to meet later this year too.

Underneath, however, the most sensitive issue facing both sides is only becoming more complicated, namely the future status of Taiwan. Here, both China and the US show signs of toughening their respective positions. This is complicated further as Taiwan’s presidential election next January begins to heat up. If tensions over the island worsen, as seems entirely plausible, wider attempts to place Sino-US relations on a firmer footing will remain illusory.