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Reports of China’s economic demise are greatly exaggerated
China’s economy is undergoing a structural shift and may slow down or even hit a wall, but there is little to suggest it will collapse or that the country will become more belligerent
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While there are issues acting as a long-term drag on China’s economy, there is still potential for China to experience solid growth for years to come, says the writer.
PHOTO: AFP
Christian Le Miere
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More than 20 years ago, political commentator Gordon Chang infamously outlined a gloomy prediction for China’s economy, in his pessimistically titled The Coming Collapse Of China. The book, written in 2001, predicted that “the end of the modern Chinese state is near”, with some form of collapse of the People’s Republic likely within “five years, perhaps 10”.
At the end of the same year, China joined the World Trade Organisation and in the two decades since, its gross domestic product has expanded tenfold. China’s economy grew from being about one-eighth that of the United States, to over 70 per cent of its size now, and clearly the second largest economy in the world.
