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Mapping the high-tariff world

How the trade war will reorder the global economy – not burn it down.

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The US flag blows in the wind as trucks drive on the Vincent Thomas Bridge past cranes to unload cargo shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California on April 10, 2025. US President Donald Trump's 10 percent tariff for almost all countries except China will likely remain in place going forward, his top economic advisor Kevin Hassett said Thursday. On April 8, Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs against all countries except China, reversing a policy that had roiled global stock markets and spooked the American bond markets -- a key barometer of investors' faith in the US government's ability to pay its debts. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)

“Made in America” is now attracting more controversy than customers in some countries, who say they are avoiding US products.

PHOTO: AFP

Ruchir Sharma

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The trade war dust has yet to settle, and may never under US President Donald Trump. But there is no going back to the low-tariff world, led by America for much of the post-World War II era. The effective US tariff rate is likely to

remain well above 10 per cent

, far higher than the 2.5 per cent rate that prevailed until 2024. So it is time to start mapping the new, high-tariff world.

America’s trade offensive has already created enough doubt among domestic businesses and global investors to radically redirect long-established supply chains and capital flows.

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