Luck stands between de-escalation and disaster for India and Pakistan

The spectacle of India and Pakistan teetering on the threshold of war and then backing off is both alarming and familiar. This time, the odds remain in favour of de-escalation, as before. Yet, the past two weeks show that relations between the two nuclear powers, which have flared into open conflict four times since partition in 1947, are increasingly unstable and dangerous. It is more important than ever that the two sides address their differences, including Pakistan’s reckless indulgence of militant groups, which threatens itself and India.

On May 7,

Indian missiles struck Pakistan and the Pakistani-ruled part of Kashmir,

a territory both sides claim. These were in retaliation for

a terrorist attack on April 22 that killed 26 civilians

in the part of Kashmir that India controls. It says it has intercepts that show militants from Pakistan were to blame. Pakistan, meanwhile, denies this and says that it has shot down several Indian warplanes. It is threatening further counterstrikes. Artillery duels along the de facto border in Kashmir are growing in intensity and killing civilians. The outside world, following a well-worn script, has urged both sides to step back.